MLB Picks: Great Betting Value Found on Mets to Take 2-0 Lead Against Dodgers Behind Syndergaard

Darin Zank

Saturday, October 10, 2015 6:11 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 6:11 PM UTC

The Mets pulled off a tough task Friday night, winning the opener of their NLDS with the Dodgers in LA, beating Clay Kershaw, stealing home-field advantage and cashing in as sizable underdogs on the MLB odds. Can they do it again Saturday night?

Mets-Dodgers NLDS Game 2 Odds
In the early Game 2 betting action the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with Cy Young candidate Zack Greinke was the -182 offered at BetOnline, while New York with rookie Noah Syndergaard was getting +178 at 5Dimes.

Also, 5Dimes was now chalking the Mets at -145 to win this NL divisional-round series, with the Dodgers now getting +125. What a difference a game makes, eh?


The Situation
New York grabbed Game 1 of this NLDS Friday night 3-1, getting a superb outing from Jake deGrom, who tied Tom Seaver's team postseason record with 13 strikeouts, a solo homer from Daniel Murphy and a two-out, two-run single from David Wright in the top of the seventh for insurance. New York closer Jeurys Familia then recorded the last four outs for the save.

The Mets have now taken five of eight games from Los Angeles this season. They also, to our great delight, provided us with a winner on our free MLB picks for Friday as healthy +175 post-time underdogs.


Game 2 Mound Matchup
Greinke (19-3, 1.66), even by our tough accounting, is 27-for-32 on quality starts this season, and four for his last four. One week ago he held San Diego to one run through eight innings, and over his last four starts he's allowed just five runs and 15 hits through 30 innings.

For the season Los Angeles is 23-9 in Greinke's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 19-13 margin.

In two starts this season against New York Greinke allowed just two runs and eight hits through 14 innings; the Dodgers only managed to split those two games.

Syndergaard (9-7, 3.24) is 14-for-24 on quality starts, and two for his last two. One week ago he held Washington to one run and two hits through seven innings, with 10 strikeouts, and just before that he held Cincinnati to two runs through 7 2/3 innings, with 11 strikeouts.

On the season the Mets are 13-11 in Syndergaard's starts, with the UNDERS going 12-10.

In his one career start against Los Angeles, back in July, Syndergaard gave up just one run and two hits through six innings of a 2-1 New York victory.


Game 2 Batting Splits
New York ranked 21st in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .312 team on-base percentage, and 20th with a .397 team slugging percentage.

LA, meanwhile, ranked 10th against righties with a .322 team OBP and 11th with a .411 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Dodger Stadium this season leaned OVER by a 45-34 margin, even though they averaged just 7.5 runs, third-fewest among all ML ballparks. Friday's game played UNDER a total of 5.5 runs, as the teams combined for just four extra-base hits. Of course, the pitching had a little something to do with that.


Game 2 Free Picks
We backed New York Friday based mainly on value, and we're thinking along the same lines for today. Greinke, of course, deserves to be favored, we just don't like giving up that big a price. And LA hasn't exactly been ripping it up with the sticks as of late. So we'll back the Mets with our MLB picks again.

MLB Pick: Mets +178 at 5Dimes

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