MLB Picks: Great Betting Value Found on Diamondbacks +156 at Home vs. Astros

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 3, 2015 5:42 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 5:42 PM UTC

With some playoff spots still up in the air I think we get some good value for your MLB picks tonight when the Houston Astros take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Opening Odds
It makes sense that oddsmakers have come out with Houston as the favorite considering that this game is more important to them. For my MLB pick of the day though I'm going to take the Arizona Diamondbacks at +135. Those are the MLB odds right now across the board and you get some good plus money on Arizona who should come in loose in what should be a playoff like atmosphere. Right now you can get those odds at 5Dimes at that +135.


Houston Astros
Collin McHugh gets the start for the Astros and comes in with a 3.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 165 strikeouts, and in 18-7 record. His main issue though has been on the road and in his last two road starts he has allowed 10 earned runs in just nine innings against the Athletics and the Rangers. On the year he has been less sharp when the Astros have traveled with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 whip. He has pitched well against Arizona though in just one outing allowing one earned run in seven innings. Still, this is the value play and the Diamondbacks in my opinion have a very good chance to get to him today.

Offensively Houston ranks eighth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.40, fifth in OPS at .745, and 26th in batting average hitting .248 as a team. They have a pretty wide disparity though between when they play at home and when they travel and all their major statistics go down on the road. Their OPS drops from .783 in Houston, one of the best in the American League, to .708 on away games. The offense does not have a very easy task today facing a pitcher who can be pretty tough at home.


Arizona Diamondbacks
Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound for Arizona and comes in with a 4.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 118 strikeouts, and a 9-11 record. There was a time early in his career that people thought he would be one of the premier pitchers in baseball by this time but it simply has not worked out that way. Still, there are flashes of how nasty his stuff is at times. At home this year his numbers are solid with a 3.90 ERA and batters hitting .253 against him. Also, in his last home start he got roughed up against the Padres allowing three earned runs, five runs total, off of three hits in just an inning of work. His three previous home starts to that he allowed two earned runs total in 21 innings. For me, this is puts him in a nice bounce back spot to come in and finish the season strong with his last start of the year.

Offensively Arizona ranks seventh in runs per game at 4.45, ninth in OPS at .737, and seventh in batting average hitting .264 as a team. Like Houston most of their offensive stats go up at home where they are one of the best offensive teams in the major leagues. The question will be is everybody going to play?

I don't see the Diamondbacks sitting their key starters in this matchup considering there are playoff implications. This is the closest to the playoffs Arizona is going to get so look for them to play each game against the Astros, including today, like it is the postseason. I recommend for one of your picks to take the Diamondbacks on the plus money line for a good value play.

MLB Picks: Diamondbacks +156 at WagerWeb

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