MLB Picks: Grab The Plus Money Value On The Royals With A Hot Pitcher On The Mound

Danny Duffy

Charles Stark

Saturday, August 6, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 6, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

Danny Duffy is coming off of one of the best starts by a pitcher this season in MLB yet he is still the underdog today versus Toronto. The line starts to make some sense when we see that he is opposing Aaron Sanchez and a hot Blue Jays team. Still, can Duffy rally Kansas City to an upset win?

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals  
Odds makers have made Kansas City the underdog in this spot at some decent plus money across the board. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back the Royals with MLB odds showing at +121 as I like the value on them in a game that can definitely win. Both starters have been extremely good this year but I will back the pitcher who is on a winning streak.


Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy gets the start for the Royals with a solid 2.90 ERA and 1.02 whip while coming off his best start of the season in Tampa Bay. Surprisingly Duffy's numbers actually go up a bit at home where he has a 3.79 ERA with batters hitting .248 against him. What could really plague him today is the long ball and in Kansas City he has not been immune to giving those up allowing nine in his eight starts. However, the Royals have won the last seven times he has taken the mound so grabbing him on the plus money line puts the value on backing him today despite some shaky home numbers. 

In his last 10 starts at most he has allowed just four earned runs and that was one time in Detroit, expect him to come in and pitch well today. Offensively Kansas City did not have much success against Toronto starter, Aaron Sanchez, earlier this season garnering just one run in eight innings off of just three hits. Still, that was in Toronto and in Kansas City the Royals have been a much better offensive team this season with some of the biggest home/road offensive disparities in all of baseball. On the road, they average 3.07 runs per game and hit .246 which jumps to 4.65 and .282 at home.


Toronto Blue Jays
Aaron Sanchez gets the start for Toronto with a 2.71 ERA, 1.13 whip, and 7-0 record on the road. With Duffy's recent winning streak when he has taken the mound for the Royals and Sanchez's stellar road record something has to give today. The reason for Sanchez's record on the road stems from a 2.11 ERA with batters hitting just .214 against him. What has me grabbing the plus money line against him though is that Kansas City will get their second look at him after facing him last month and although they had little success the fact that they have faced him and that they hit better at home should only be helpful today. 

I'm a big fan of Sanchez and the future looks extremely bright but the way this game sets up I honestly think it can go either way. At the plate, Toronto has solid numbers across the board, especially in the power categories. Currently, they rank second in the major leagues in home runs per game, sixth in runs per game, and eighth in OPS, as well is the fact they been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the break. All that being said though they are a different hitting team away from home as those numbers tend to drop on the road. Although their runs per game only drop slightly their batting average and OPS go from .260 and .786 in Toronto to just .235 and .735 on the road respectively.


Free MLB Picks: Royals +121 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker 
July record: 13-9
August record: 3-2

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