MLB Picks: Grab Dodgers RL Plus Money with Kershaw on Mound

Darin Zank

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 3:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 3:06 PM UTC

The Mets banged their way to victory in Game 3 of this NLDS Monday night; can they finish the job when the teams meet for Game 4 Tuesday evening?

Dodgers-Mets NLDS Game 4 Odds
As of mid-Tuesday morning the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with Clay Kershaw was the -150 offered at 5Dimes, while New York with rookie lefty Steven Matz was getting +145 at Heritage. The Dodgers were also getting +113 giving the run and a half on the run line at Pinnacle.


The Situation
New York snagged a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five NLDS with a 13-7 win Monday night. The Mets fell down 3-0 in the second inning, but promptly put up a four-spot to take the lead, then added two more in the third and four more in the fourth, to the great delight of a raucous City Field crowd.

New York has now taken six of 10 games from LA this season, with the OVERS going 6-4.

We missed on our free MLB pick on Monday's game with the Dodgers; we were looking for value on the big line against Matt Harvey, and LA had him on the ropes a couple of times, but couldn't deliver the knock-out punch. Also, unfortunately, Brett Anderson and parts of the Dodger bullpen were terrible.


Game 4 Pitching Match-Up
Matz (4-0, 2.27), a 24-year-old rookie, is three-for-six on quality starts this season. Most recently, 19 days ago, he gave up three runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings against Cincinnati, although he also struck out eight. And over his three starts previous to that he held foes to four runs through 16 1/3 innings. Matz missed the end of the regular season with a sore back, but apparently he's ready to go tonight.

New York is 5-1 in Matz's starts this year, with the totals splitting 3-3.

In his one start this season against Los Angeles Matz tossed six innings of two-hit, shutout ball, walking two while whiffing eight, in an 8-0 Mets victory back in July.

Kershaw (16-8, 2.18) will be starting on three days rest, after taking the hill for the opener of this series last Friday, suffering the loss. He held New York to one run through the first six innings, but found a little trouble in the seventh, left the game with two runners on base, then watched as his bullpen allowed them both to score.

Still, over three starts this season against New York Kershaw has allowed just four runs through 22 2/3 innings; LA, thanks to some poor run support, lost two of those games, while the UNDERS went 3-0.

On the season the Dodgers are 20-14 in Kershaw's starts, with the UNDERS going 19-14.


Game 4 Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranked fourth in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .326 team on-base percentage, and 10th with a .413 team slugging percentage.

New York, meanwhile, ranked 21st against left-handed pitching with a .312 team OBP and 13th with a .411 team slugging percentage. But Monday night the Mets racked up 10 runs and 11 hits in six innings against left-handed Dodgers.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Citi Field this season leaned 41-38 toward the UNDERS, as they averaged 7.4 runs per, second-fewest among all ML ballparks. However, Monday night's game cruised OVER a total of seven runs, as the teams combined to bang out 26 hits, including four homers.


NLDS Game 4 Free Picks
New York exploded for two touchdowns worth of runs Monday night, but how many times have we seen teams do that, then struggle just to scrape up a run or two next time out? Too many to count. And going against Kershaw only increases the chances that happens. So for our free MLB picks on Game 4 we like Los Angeles, and we'll take a chance with a play on the run line.

MLB Pick: Dodgers on the run line +110 at Bovada

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