MLB Picks: Go Against the Grain in Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks & Bet Over

Charles Stark

Sunday, December 21, 2014 1:34 PM GMT

Sunday, Dec. 21, 2014 1:34 PM GMT

Today, for one of your MLB picks I suggest an opposite POD play on over the total between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. I am still shaking my head at this number.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers have set the total for this game at 7.5. Here's the amazing part about that, the starters for this game are Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin, the odds on favorite Cy Young winner versus arguably the future ace of the Diamondbacks. There is not even any kind of special juice on this game and across the board as it is at regular odds of -110 for both the over and the under. One such book is Bookmaker sports book where you can take over the total at -110.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Zack Greinke gets the start for the Dodgers with a ridiculous 1.68 ERA, 0.86 whip, 174 strikeouts, and a 16-3 record. In his last 10 starts he has only had one rough outing in which he allowed five earned runs surprisingly in Philadelphia. Besides that he has been lights out this whole season, which makes this total make absolutely no sense. In his last five starts he has allowed only eight total earned runs in 34 innings. How this line is over seven is mind-boggling with him on the mound.

The Dodgers rank 19th in runs scored per game at 4.12, sixth in OPS at .744, and 21st in batting average hitting .251 as a team. With their offense I will keep it simple, they are much better home hitting team than they are on the road with some significant bumps in their important offensive statistics. They have hit the ball better recently but they are facing a very good pitcher today.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Diamondbacks with a 3.32 ERA, 1.22 whip, 61 strikeouts, and a 5-3 record. Since getting his first start in early July he has pitched really well this season and in his last 10 starts he has only had two rough outings, one to the Nationals allowing three earned runs in just over an inning, and at Cincinnati where he allowed four earned runs in two innings. Except for those two games he has been very tough and in his last three starts he has only allowed three earned runs in 18 innings versus the Cardinals, in Colorado, and in his last start versus San Francisco. As I get back to this line, the theme of this write up, I can't get around to the point that the Dodgers are going to do some real damage against this kid. Because of this though this play is perfect for an OPOD.

Arizona ranks fourth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.50, seventh in OPS at .736, and seventh in batting average hitting .266 as a team. They have only faced Greinke once this season back in April where he pitched the five hits shut out. I understand that they are a really good hitting team but I wouldn't expect them to have a lot of quality at-bats today.

 

Final Analysis
Back to the odds, it is hard to argue that this line is set where should be. With both these pitchers on the mound I anticipated this line to come out between 6 to 6.5. Yet here we are at a high total of 7.5, okay I will bite and make this my opposite play of the day. For one of my MLB picks, and may I suggest one of yours, I will go against the grain and take the over in this spot.

MLB Pick: Dodgers & Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 at Pinnacle 

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