By: Ron Patrick
New York has taken the first two games of this series, after Ivan Nova blanked the Giants Saturday afternoon 6-0. The Yanks won as -165 favorites on the MLB betting line, and the game, to our delight, played UNDER its total of nine.
So, with seven games left on their schedule, the Yankees trail the Indians by three games in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.
San Francisco, meanwhile, has scored a total of seven runs in losing three of its last four games.
Sunday's Betting Line
As of Sunday morning many sportsbooks were listing today's Pettitte-vs.-Petit bout at New York -145, with a total of nine. The Yanks could also be gotten at around +140 on the run line.
Sunday's Pitching Match-Up
The retiring Pettitte (10-10, 3.93), who could very well be making his last home start (if the Yanks miss the playoffs), is 13-for-28 on quality starts this season, and five for his last seven. Last time out he held Toronto to one run through 6 2/3 innings, and over his last eight starts he's allowed 11 ER through 49 innings.
On the season the 41-year-old has allowed 191 hits in 169 innings, and owns a 117/45 K/BB ratio.
New York is 14-14 in Pettitte's starts this year.
This will be the first time Pettitte has started against San Francisco since 2005, when he was with the Houston Astros.
Yusmeiro Petit (4-0, 3.08) is 3-for-5 on quality starts this season, which for him began in August. Last time out he gave up four runs in six innings vs. the Mets, and just before that he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings vs. the Rockies.
On the year Petit has allowed 33 hits (just one homer) through 38 innings, walked nine and whiffed 38.
San Fran, a team that's 13 games under .500, is a perfect 5-0 in Petit's starts this season.
This will be Petit's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Our Take on Sunday's Game
Pettitte and the Yankees seem an obvious choice for today, but Petit provides reason for ponder. So instead of making a pick on the side, we'll do like yesterday and go with the UNDER for our free pick for today.
By: Ron Patrick
New York grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 5-1, breaking a tie game on an Alex Rodriguez grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the seventh.
CC Sabathia held San Fran to one run through seven innings, as the Yankees won as -140 favorites on Friday's MLB betting line. The game also played UNDER its total of 8.5.
Saturday's Betting Odds
Most baseball books we sampled Saturday morning were listing New York and Ivan Nova at around -160 over San Fran and Ryan Vogelsong, with a total of 8.5. The Yanks could also be gotten at around +125 on the run line.
Saturday's Pitching Match-Up
Nova (8-5, 3.36) is 9-for-18 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last three. Last time out he gave up four ER in four innings against Boston, and over his last three starts he's allowed 11 ER in 14 innings.
For the season Nova has given up 121 hits, just eight home runs, in 123 innings, walked 42 and struck out 104.
New York has won 11 of Nova's 18 starts.
This will be Nova's first-ever start against San Francisco.
Vogelsong (3-5, 5.73), like his team, has struggled through a lost season. He started by winning just two of his first nine starts, with an ERA over seven, then spent almost three months on the DL with a broken hand. Since returning to the rotation six weeks ago Vogelsong is 3-for-8 on quality starts; last time out he gave up three runs in six innings against the Dodgers, but over his last four outings he's allowed 15 ER in 21 2/3 innings.
On the season Vogelsong has allowed more hits, 114, than innings pitched, 93, and owns a very mediocre 63/33 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.
San Francisco has lost nine of Vogelsong's 17 starts this season.
This will be Vogey's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Check out SBR's Picks with Willie Bee, on the Rangers & Royals~
Our Take on Saturday's Game
Like Friday's game, we find it tough to make a call on the side on Saturday's contest. But one thing stands out for us; neither team has faced these two starting pitchers. And generally, in situations like that, we give the edge to the pitchers. So instead of the side, we'll look to the total for our free pick on Saturday's game and go with the UNDER.
Pick: Take the UNDER 8.5 runs at the +111 offered at Pinnacle.
By: Ron Patrick
New York clings to hopes of making the playoffs, but the prospects are getting bleak.
If the Yanks are going to make up ground in the AL wild-card race this weekend they'll have to do it against the defending World Series champs.
Can New York hang on in the playoff race? Or can San Fran play a little “spoiler?”
Friday's Betting Lines
As of Friday AM, most MLB sportsbooks were chalking New York and CC Sabathia at around -140 over San Francisco and Tim Lincecum, with a total of 8.5.
Giants-Yanks Series Set-Up
New York just dropped two of three games in Toronto this week, losing Thursday's series rubber match 6-2. The Yanks have lost two series in a row and five of their last six games.
So, heading into the weekend, with nine games to play, New York sits 3.5 games behind Texas and Toronto in the American League wild-card race, with three other teams between them.
San Francisco meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Mets at Citi Field this week, winning Thursday's rubber match 2-1. The Giants have won three series in a row and eight of their last 11 games.
But at 12 games under .500 the defending Series champs won't make the playoffs this year.
These two teams, who played in same city for 60 years before the Giants moved West, haven't met since 2007.
Friday's Pitching Match-Up
Lincecum (10-13, 4.40), by our tough standards, is 13-for-30 on quality starts this year. Last time out he held the Dodgers to three runs through six innings, and just before that he limited the Rockies to two runs through eight innings.
On the season the two-time former Cy Young winner has allowed fewer hits, 171, than innings pitched, 184, but he's also walked 72, which is a bit too many.
San Fran is 14-16 in Lincecum's starts this year, but has won his last five in a row.
This will be Lincecum's first-ever start against the Yankees.
Sabathia (13-13, 4.90) is 15-for-31 on quality starts this year, and two for his last three. Last time out he gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings against Boston, but in his two starts previous to that he held the White Sox and Orioles to six ER through 14 2/3 innings.
But in this, the worst season of his career, Sabby has given up more hits, 217, including 28 homers, than innings pitched, 204, although he still owns a respectable K/BB ratio of 171-62.
New York is 16-15 in Sabathia's starts this year.
This will be Sabby's first start against San Francisco since 2008, when he was with Milwaukee.
As far as the bullpens go for this series, the Giants rank sixth with an ERA of 3.33 and are 38-for-51 on save opportunities, while the Yanks rank 18th with a 3.67 ERA and are 48-for-61 on save opps.
The Giants rank 13th in team OPB at .321, 29th in homers with 98 and 20th in scoring at 3.9 runs per game.
The Yankees rank 22nd in OBP at .310, 21st in homers with 137 and 15th in scoring at 4.1 RPG.
Giants-Yankees Betting Trends
San Fran is 34-44 on the road this season.
The Yanks are 44-31 at home this year.
New York is seven games above .500 overall this season, but two games under, 50-52, against right-handed pitching.
San Francisco is 23-28 against lefties.
The OVER/UNDERS are 37-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this year.
Since losing lead-off hitter Brett Gardner to an oblique strain the Yankees are 1-5, averaging just over two runs per game.
Our Take on Friday's Game
You're never quite sure what you're going to get from Lincecum, and Sabathia is having as tough a time as we can remember. So we're going to call the pitching match-up a wash. These two teams are also similar when it comes to the bats and the bullpens. And while New York has more to play for, it's been San Francisco that's been playing the better ball recently. So, we'll go with the Giants at the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Friday.