Giants vs. Padres Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
San Diego is the lowest-scoring team in baseball, and has scored a total of five runs in the first two games of this series. The Padres have also won the first two games of this series, by scores of 2-1 Friday and 3-1 Saturday.
San Francisco has lost three games in a row, scoring one run in each game. Friday night the Giants went 0-for-nine at the plate with runners in scoring position, and Saturday they never even got a runner into scoring position.
In the early betting most books were listing San Diego and Robbie Erlin at around -120 over San Francisco and Tim Lincecum, with a total of seven runs.
Sunday's Pitching Match-Up
Erlin (1-1, 3.18), a lefty, is one-for-two on quality starts this year. First he held Cleveland to one run through six innings, but last time out he gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings against Colorado. San Diego split those two games, and both stayed UNDER their totals.
Erlin started once against San Francisco last year, giving up two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 Padres victory.
Lincecum (0-1, 7.20) is 0-for-three on quality starts this season. First he gave up four runs in six innings against Arizona, then he allowed seven runs in four innings against those same Diamondbacks. Last time out Lincecum threw five innings against the Dodgers, giving up a run and five hits.
The Giants are 2-1 in Lincecum's starts, with the totals also going 2-1.
Lincecum started four times against San Diego last year, and produced three quality starts, including a no-hitter at Petco on July 13. On the whole he held the Padres to five runs and 17 hits in 28 1/3 innings last year, with 13 walks and 35 strikeouts. San Francisco won three of those four games.
Free Pick for Sunday
Lincecum is always an iffy proposition, but he's been tough on San Diego, which still ranks last in the Majors in scoring. So we'll stick with San Francisco for our free MLB pick for Sunday.
Giants vs. Padres Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Game 1 Recap
The Padres won as a -105 post-time choice on Friday's MLB betting line, and the game stayed UNDER its total of 6.5 runs.
The Giants have scored a total of 12 runs over their last six games, while the Pads have scored nine runs over their last four games.
San Diego shoots for the series victory when the teams meet for Game 2 Saturday night (8:40 pm ET).
As of early Saturday AM most books were listing San Francisco and Tim Hudson at around -130 over San Diego and Eric Stults, with a total of 6.5.
Also, the Giants could be played at around +130 giving the run and a half on the run line.
Stults (0-2, 5.52) is off to an iffy start to this season. He's 0-for-three on quality starts, allowing nine ER and 21 hits in 14 2/3 innings, walking five while striking out just seven. San Diego has lost two of his three starts.
Stults and the Giants are very familiar with one another; he started six times against them last season, giving up 23 ER and 40 hits in 35 innings. Somehow, San Diego managed to split those six games.
Hudson (2-0, 2.35) is off to a great start for his new team. He's two-for-three on quality starts, having allowed six ER and 15 hits through 23 innings, walking none (zero) while striking out 16.
The Giants have won all three of Hudson's starts.
Hudson started once last year for Atlanta against San Diego, giving up three runs and five hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 3-2 Braves loss.
Buster Posey and Michael Morse both sat out Friday's game for San Francisco, until they pinch-hit late; neither are hurt, they've just been cold at the plate, and probably needed a day off. Both will probably be back in the lineup Saturday night.
Meanwhile, San Diego's Chase Headley missed another game Friday night, as he deals with a sore biceps, and he's questionable again for Saturday.
Saturday's Free Pick
We give Hudson the advantage in the pitching match-up, and with Posey and Morse back the Giants should be able to muster more than one run. Perhaps even three or four. So we'll go with San Francisco, at the -128 offered at 5Dimes, for our free MLB pick on Saturday's game.
Giants vs. Padres Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
The Betting Line
As of early Friday morning most shops were listing this game, which matches Matt Cain against Tyson Ross, at right around a pick 'em, with a total of 6.5 runs.
For those looking for a payoff on this game San Diego could be gotten at upwards of +200 giving the run and a half on the run line.
San Francisco just took two of three games from Los Angeles, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday 2-1. The Giants scored a total of six runs in the series, but held the Dodgers to five runs total. All three of those games, as one might surmise, stayed UNDER their totals.
San Diego just split four games with Colorado, losing Thursday 3-1.
So the Giants, at 10-6, are tied for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers, while the Padres, at 7-9, sit in fourth place, three games out of first.
Friday's Pitching Match-Up
Ross (1-2, 3.12) is one-for-three on quality starts this season. He gave up three ER in five innings against the Dodgers, then two runs in 5 1/3 innings against Cleveland. But he also walked nine batters through those first two starts. Now he's coming off a very nice outing last Sunday against Detroit in which he held the Tigers to one run through seven innings, walking one while striking out seven in a 5-1 Padres victory.
For the season Ross has allowed 26 baserunners (hits + walks) in 17 1/3 innings of work.
San Diego is 1-2 in Ross' starts this year, with two of those games staying UNDER on the totals.
Ross started once against San Francisco last year, giving up three runs and seven hits in six innings of a 7-6 Padres defeat.
Cain (0-2, 4.00) is one-for-three in quality starts this season. First, he gave up two ER in five innings against Arizona; then he allowed five runs in six innings against LA; last time out he held Colorado to one run and four hits through seven innings. So for the season he's allowed 22 baserunners in 18 innings.
But San Francisco, somehow, has lost all three of his starts.
Cain started once against San Diego last year, allowing two runs and six hits in seven innings, walking none while whiffing 10, in a 5-4 Giants victory.
At the Bat
San Francisco ranks 10th in the Majors with a .725 OPS, 10th in homers with 17 and 10th in scoring at 4.5 runs per game.
San Diego ranks 28th in OPS at .635, 28th in homers with nine and dead last in scoring at 2.8 runs per game.
San Francisco took the season series from San Diego last year 11 games to eight. Also, the totals went 10-8-1 on those games, which averaged 8.6 runs per.
San Francisco has trended toward the OVERS this season by an 11-5 margin, mainly because it's averaged 4.5 runs per game, while Giants games have often been lined with among the lowest totals on the daily boards.
On the other end of the spectrum San Diego has trended toward the UNDERS this season by a 12-4 margin, because while the Padres are averaging less than three runs per game, their pitching staff ranks fourth with a 2.89 ERA.
San Francisco C Buster Posey is just one for his last 17 at the plate, and at least one report indicates he might be rested Friday night. Also, SS Brandon Crawford has missed the last two games with a sore hamstring.
On the other side of the diamond San Diego is playing, once again, without both Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin. And 3B Chase Headley has missed the last two games with a sore arm.
Bettors might want to check the lineup cards before getting down on this game.
Friday's Free Pick
We give Cain the edge in the pitching match-up, and San Diego, surprise-surprise, is having trouble scoring runs, again. So we'll add the Giants, at the +102 offered at Heritage, to our list of free MLB picks for Friday.