Arenado Might Be Poised To Upset Stanton For Home Run Crown

Monday, February 25, 2019 3:51 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 25, 2019 3:51 PM UTC

The oddsmakers at BetOnline expect a New York Yankee to lead the major leagues in home runs this season. That a wise wager? Bet confidently with tips from SBRpicks.com.

Let me preface this story regarding odds from BetOnline to lead the majors in home runs this season by saying it has been written before Bryce Harper has signed with a team, and he obviously could factor in the HR race. The site currently lists Harper at +2500 to win the title for the first time. His career high was 42 in 2015 when he tied with Colorado’s Nolan Arenado for the National League lead. The Orioles’ Chris Davis led the majors with 47 that year.

We think Harper is going to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. That would seem to benefit Harper because on ESPN’s Park Factor from last season, the Phillies’ Citizens Bank Park ranked fourth in HR Park Factor at 1.190. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, while below favors the pitcher. Nationals Park was fifth last year at 1.173. No. 1 was Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park at 1.395.

The two favorites are Yankees mashers Giancarlo Stanton (+750) and Aaron Judge (+1000) – Yankee Stadium was sixth in HR Park Factor last year at 1.166. The Yankees set a big-league record with 267 homers overall. Stanton led with 38, while Judge hit 27 in just 112 games, missing time due to injury. Stanton’s lone home run title came in 2017 when he hit a career-high 59 for the Marlins. Judge led the AL with a rookie record 52 that year. It used to be that Stanton had trouble staying healthy and thus wasn’t a great option on this prop, but he has played at least 158 games in back-to-back years and obviously can DH in the American League.

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The Angels’ Mike Trout (+1600), Red Sox’s JD Martinez (+1800) and Rangers’ Joey Gallo (+1800) round out the BetOnline favorites. Trout is obviously amazing, but he’s not one of those guys who simply swings for the fences every time out. That’s why he’s a career. 307 hitter. He could probably hit 50 if he wanted to. Trout’s career high of 41 was set in 2015 and he jacked 39 last year in 140 games.

Martinez finished second in the majors last year with 43 homers in his first season in Boston. Gallo is an all-or-nothing type as he hit 40 bombs last season in 148 games but struck out a whopping 207 times and hit just .206.

Reigning MLB home run champion Khris Davis of the A’s is +2000. He banged a career-high 48 a season ago, his third straight year of at least 42. He also hit .247 for a fourth straight season, which is practically impossible. No other player in MLB history has had the same batting average rounded to three decimal places in four consecutive seasons, with a minimum of 10 at-bats each year.

Our pick is Arenado, who is poised to break the bank next winter as the top free agent on the market if he and the Colorado Rockies don’t agree on a long-term deal. Arenado settled for $26 million in arbitration this winter, a record amount. Over the past four seasons, his 158 home runs rank third in the major leagues and obviously Arenado gets to play half his games in the thin air of Denver. He led the National League 38 homers a season ago, his third time leading or co-leading the NL but yet to lead the majors.

Free MLB Pick: Arenado +2500Best Line Offered: BetOnline
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