MLB Picks: Get Over Your Bookie With Tuesday Night Totals

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 1:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 28, 2016 1:50 PM UTC

Another Tuesday, another trio of totals from late games in the west analyzed by our resident handicapper. Read on as he analyzes to find superb wagering value and give you his free MLB Picks.

I’m back this Tuesday with another trio of total’s picks, as some of the late games on the slate present some great value in this regard. I’m focusing on a few variables today for finding value, namely weather conditions and fielding independent pitching ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners
This line has already started to move a bit and can be found at 8.5 at Heritage. This matchup features Jon Niese of the Pittsburgh Pirates against Hisashi Iwakuma of the Seattle Mariners. On the year Iwakuma has posted a 4.45 ERA and a 6-6 record, but his strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up, home run rate is up, and he’s allowed more home runs than he has ever had in his career. Iwakuma’s fielding independent pitching mark on the year is 4.78.

Jon Niese hasn’t had the best move from the Mets to the Pirates in 2016, and it has led to him being in route to the worst season of his career. The most troubling trend is the home runs being allowed by Niese this year at a staggering 23.7% HR/FB rate. That is almost ten percentage points higher than 2015. On the year, Niese has put up a 4.93 ERA and a 5.55 FIP mark.

It’s flipping hot over here on the west coast, and Safeco Field should be like a huge oven being prepared for an ostrich dinner, so the recent trend of being a dinger happy ballpark should continue. I’m taking over 8 runs here as one of my Tuesday MLB picks.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991549, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Over 8 -115
Best Line Offered: at BookMaker


Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels 
The Houston Astros have made up for their early season woes in short order and are 6-1 in their last seven games coming into this matchup with reclamation project, Tim Lincecum. On this hot streak the Astros are averaging 6.7 runs per game while batting .307 – simply outhitting their opponents who have batted an average of .293.

Lincecum has not pitched great in his two games so far and has only posted 9 innings over 2 starts. A short outing will bring the Angel’s bullpen into play and they are carrying a 4.01 ERA on the season.

Scott Feldman gets the start here for the Astros in place of McCullers, and although he has been ok from an ERA standpoint over his last three games his WHIP is running a high 1.85. He also has been untrustworthy on the road while carrying a 7.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. He faces a tough matchup here as the Angels fare better against right handed pitchers, posting a 31-21 O-U total record on the year.

Again, it is hot on the west coast, so expect some dingers in this game off of Lincecum and Feldman. Take Over 8.5 runs in this game as another Tuesday MLB Pick.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991963, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 +100 
Best Line Offered: At Pinnacle


Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants 
The battle of the bay commences in San Francisco tonight and could prove to be a lopsided matchup as the Giants are making a run in the NL West. Albert Suarez makes the start for the Giants and he was nails in his first start at home, posting a 2.84 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Giants are a stellar 24-14 SU at home.

Pitching for the Athletics is Kendall Graveman, who has been very good in his last three starts. Over the last three games Graveman has posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, while limiting batters to just one home run over 17.7 innings pitched. The Athletics have won each of those 3 starts as well.

Oakland struggles against right handed starters, only putting up 3.5 runs per game, and I expect their offense to come down back to earth after last night’s outburst of 8 runs. This should be a competitive pitching matchup which makes Under 8 runs the value MLB Picks in this game.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991903, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Under 8 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
MLB 2016 Record: 30-15-3, +14.11 Units


Want more insight? Consider The Total When Capping Pirates vs. Mariners MLB Odds

comment here