MLB Picks: Get The Best Overnight Value W/ Thursday's Betting Lines

Ian Cameron

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 6:36 PM GMT

Our experienced sports handicapper provides an indept MLB betting preview for tomorrow's games. Don't miss out on what he has to say to get the advantage tonight! 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
One of my favorite pitching punching bags of the season so far is back for the Cincinnati Reds as Alfredo Simon returns to the mound for this start against Milwaukee on Thursday. Simon continues to flounder having allowed 22 runs on 28 hits and 5 home runs in just 13.1 innings of work in four starts. He labored mightily in his last start against Pittsburgh allowing 3 runs in 4 innings throwing 98 pitches and averaging 24.5 pitches per inning.

I am stunned the Reds keep trotting Simon out to the mound but here he is back once again to make another start for Cincinnati’s struggling rotation despite a brutal first month. Milwaukee’s lineup has picked up their production of late scoring 32 runs in their last 4 games and should be able to have success against Simon and the horrific Reds bullpen behind him which has allowed at least a run in 21 straight games.

However, Chase Anderson for the Brewers hasn’t shown that he has an ability to get hitters out consistently right now either. He has a 5.55 ERA and has been even worse in his last three starts allowing 17 runs on 28 hits and a whopping 6 home runs in his last 13.1 innings of work. I’m not expecting that to be a good fit at all for Anderson having major issues with the long ball and that is bad news when pitching in a home run hitting ballpark like Great American Ballpark here in Cincinnati.

The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings between Milwaukee and Cincinnati dating back to last season and I expect another slugfest on Thursday night with this game projected to fly Over the total. You can find Over 9 at as low as -103 right now on the MLB odds boards.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are coming off a series win against Pittsburgh and they are not a team I consider betting against lightly but the fact remains that Washington has been just as red hot as the Cubs have been lately and the Nationals have a very strong and promising young starter in Joe Ross on the mound for this game and he has been terrific early in the season and is worthy of a look at a healthy underdog price in this game between two surging NL squads.

Ross has a very strong 0.79 ERA in 4 starts allowing just 2 runs in 22.2 innings of work. He shut down the Cardinals in his most recent outing giving up only a single run in 6 innings and he has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts dating back to last season. Kyle Hendricks has been inconsistent so far for the Cubs and will get the start here.

He has yielded 9 runs in his last 16.1 innings of work and will be facing a red hot Nationals lineup which has scored 25 runs in their last 5 games and are a big reason why Washington has won five of their last six games. Chicago Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and it’s a very tricky proposition to recommend any bet against this red hot team right now but I like Joe Ross and the odds we are getting with him and the Nats at +128 at Heritage Sports in this game. I’ll lean to Washington as one of my MLB picks at an underdog price to get a win here and improve on their strong 10-4 road record this season.

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Free MLB Pick: Nationals +130
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline