MLB Picks: Game 5 Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Marco Estrada pitching

Charles Stark

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 2:44 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 2:44 PM UTC

The Toronto Blue Jays avoided elimination yesterday by defeating the Cleveland Indians 5-1 in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. Don't be shy to pull the trigger on the Cleveland Indians, and get ready with the best MLB odds in this analysis.


MLB playoff record: 4-6-1

Cleveland Indians

While in AAA for most of the season Ryan Merritt posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts along with a 1.25 whip. Since being called up he has not seen a ton of action posting a 1.64 ERA in just three appearances and one start but the Indians seem to like him enough to give him the ball in this pivotal game five.  Most likely we will see some similarities to game three in which Terry Francona made well use of his bullpen, not from injury though but most likely from necessity.  I have a hard time believing Merritt is going to come in put together a lot of quality innings to keep the Blue Jays at bay, especially since they had their share of quality at-bats yesterday garnering nine hits, however, this is a really good number to grab on a team that has used their relievers effectively.  Offensively the Indians struggled yesterday with just two hits but I like them to bounce back today.


Toronto Blue Jays

Marco Estrada takes the mound for Toronto with a 3.48 ERA and 1.12 whip but with a 1.65 ERA in two playoff starts. In his start back in Cleveland, he was excellent allowing just two earned runs off of six hits in eight innings with the only damage being a two-run home run. He has had a really nice season but despite his strong numbers he is just 3-7 at home this year which is odd considering batters are hitting just .213 against him in Toronto.  Over the past month, he has been dealing so it seems like backing him today to shut down the Indians and give the Blue Jays a very good opportunity to extend the series is the way to go.  However, Toronto has had their own struggles versus the Tribe's core of relievers so although they will probably get to Merritt a bit I like this number with a lot of pressure in this game five that will probably come down to the final innings.


Final Analysis

Oddsmakers have come out making the Indians a solid +160 or more underdog across the board. Although this number makes sense and the Blue Jays should be heavily favored I am going to take a shot on Cleveland for my MLB pick like at 5 Dimes, where you can get a 50% Free Play Bonus. This is simply a value play.

 Free MLB Pick: Cleveland +172Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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