MLB Picks: Formula for Success= Low WHIP + Solid Winning %

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, May 29, 2015 5:23 PM GMT

Sometimes, there are ways you can approach baseball matches which will lead to very high records of winning MLB picks. Here we focus on pitching stats which will surely help you win big.

In recent articles I authored in May of 2015, we explored the concept of OPS (OBP + SLG) as it correlated to wins and losses. I found there to be a direct correlation for both batting and pitching. Now we turn our attention to a more recognizable concept of the WHIP (a pitcher’s walks + hits per innings pitched). 

In findings that are remarkably similar to years gone by, today’s article intended to improve the accuracy of your MLB picks will focus on the correlation between a LOW WHIP and a solid WINNING percentage. For the purposes of our study, we will examine three measurements. They are a pitcher’s WHIP, his TRGS (team record games started), and his personal won/loss record. At the end of this article, I will draw conclusions from the data. For convenience, the pitchers in the chart below are listed in alphabetical order.

The chart lists pitchers who have a WHIP of less than 1.15. All numbers are through May 25, 2015. All pitchers must have a minimum of 3 starts.

 

Pitcher

WHIP

TRGS

W/L

C Anderson

1.11

2-7

1-1

Archer

1.08

6-4

5-4

Arrieta

1.09

5-4

4-4

Bolsinger

0.79

3-1

3-0

Burnett

1.10

5-4

4-1

Chavez

1.14

1-5

1-4

Cole

1.12

6-3

6-2

Cueto

0.96

5-4

3-4

R Delarosa

1.10

5-4

4-2

DeGrom

1.11

5-4

5-4

Gray

1.00

5-5

5-2

Greinke

0.87

7-2

5-1

Hahn

1.14

2-7

2-4

Hamels

1.13

6-4

5-3

Hammel

0.91

4-5

3-2

Harang

1.03

5-5

4-4

Haren

1.08

6-3

4-2

Harvey

0.99

6-3

5-2

F Hernandez

0.94

8-1

7-1

Jiminez

1.10

4-4

3-3

Keuchel

0.96

8-2

6-1

Kluber

1.12

2-8

2-5

C Lewis

1.13

4-5

4-2

Liriano

1.14

2-7

2-4

S Miller

0.90

8-1

5-1

Morrow

1.09

5-0

2-0

Odorizzi

0.97

4-6

3-5

O’Sullivan

1.14

1-4

1-3

Pineda

1.14

6-3

5-2

Richards

1.13

5-2

4-2

Salazer

1.08

6-1

5-1

Scherzer

0.88

6-3

5-3

Tanaka

0.94

3-1

2-1

Vogelsong

1.12

5-2

3-2

Volquez

1.07

6-3

4-3

Wacha

1.04

9-0

7-0

Wanewright

1.04

3-1

2-1

Young

0.88

4-0

3-0

 

I will save you the tedium of adding up the numbers. The TRGS of all pitchers who have a WHIP of less than 1.15 is 183-128 (58.8%). The W/L record of these pitchers is 144-86 (62.6%). This is a difference of 39-42. This implies that these starting pitchers with a good WHIP are able to dominate the first five innings of play (when they are responsible for the personal W/L), but in the later innings due to poor bullpen work, or shoddy defense, the record dwindles to less than .500. In coming articles I will examine the ways in which we can use these records to our best advantage.

Although a WHIP of less than 1.15 has been a cornerstone of success in previous years, I took the time to examine the upper end of our list this 2015 season. As it turns out, it was well worth my time. Pitchers who have a WHIP of 1.10-1.15 have a TRGS (the numbers on which we get paid) of just 45-61 (42.5%). That means that all starting pitchers in 2015 MLB who, with a minimum of 3 starts, have a 1.10 WHIP or lower, have a TRGS of 138-67, good for 67.3% winners.

Next week, I will return to confirm the concept of the WHIP by exploring those 2015 MLB starting pitchers who have an extraordinarily high WHIP. The results & status on MLB odds should not be surprising to you. Until then, keep this list handy and WHIP IT GOOD!