MLB Picks: Flaming Red Sox Provide Easy Cash Against Rockies

Wednesday, May 25, 2016 2:47 PM GMT

We use the combination of a massive home/road dichotomy, current form and strong pitching matchup to make the right MLB pick.

Colorado Rockies (Bettis) vs. Boston Red Sox (Wright)
Colorado bats have gone cold in a 1-5 slide that has seen them drop to a familiar sub .500 mark of 21-23.  Over the 6-game span, the Rockies have totaled only 19 runs with a .229 BA.  Last night, their struggles on the road in Interleague play continued.  Colorado is now 5-24 in American League parks.  Meanwhile, the Boston barrage continues.  Recently, on this field, the Red Sox are 12-2, averaging 8.7 RPG, hitting .352 with 20 homeruns.  It is a main reason why they have the No. 1 batting OPS in MLB at .844.   They also continue their dominant edge in the bullpen with an OPS advantage of .658 to .752.  

Boston Red Sox
There are also edges for Boston in the starting pitching.  For Colorado, today’s starter, Bettis, checks in with a record of 4-2 but 4.18 ERA.  To his credit, Bettis pitched one of his best games of the season against St. Louis on May 17th, working 6 2/3 innings, allowing 1 run on 5 hits with 2 walks.  Yet, he may be a bit “off his feed” as his schedule was disrupted when he threw just 8 pitches at Pittsburgh on Sunday, before the game was postponed due to rain.  Much like his Colorado teammates, Bettis has been at his worst against American League opposition.  In 9 outings, including 5 starts, Bettis has an 8.10 ERA.  That is a bad omen, when facing the best hitting team in baseball. 

Boston starter, Steven Wright, has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox.  The knuckleballer has a record of 3-4 but a strong 2.52 ERA and .578 OPS.  His knuckleball failed to flutter, only when he pitched in the rain in a game against Houston.  Other than that, Wright has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 7 of his 8 starts.  This includes a solid outing last week, when he worked 8 innings against KC giving up just 3 runs in an eventual 3-2 loss to the Royals.  

 

Analysis
With the outstanding offense of Boston, it should come as no surprise to learn that 23 of their 28 victories (that’s 82%!), including 14 of their 17 home wins (also 82%!) have come by 2 or more runs. Combined with the home/road dichotomy, the solid edge in the bullpen and with Wright over Bettis, I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick with the Boston Red Sox tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993312, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker