MLB Picks: Finding Betting Value In The Twins vs Yankees Game

Jay Pryce

Saturday, June 25, 2016 10:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 25, 2016 10:00 AM UTC

Santana and the Twins tussle with Pineda and the Yankees in the Bronx. Can Minnesota curb New York's recent dominance in the series? Here's the free pick that will answer this.

Minnesota Twins (23-50) – Ervin Santana (2-7, 4.83 ERA)
The worst team in MLB is hoping to avoid there 10th losing streak of three games or more this season, and the Twins could not have picked a tougher opponent; at least as matchups are concerned. Since 2009, they are 14-45 versus New York; 8-20 at Yankee Stadium. Some small market teams have shifted organizational strategies (Royals, Rays, etc.) over the years to contend with the league’s biggest spenders, and with great success—but that is not the case when these two meet up.

Manager Paul Molitor taps Ervin Santana to turn around their fortunes. The 11-year veteran arguably had his best outing of the year against this same lineup on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on six hits in 7.1 innings in a 7-4 win at Target Field. It was right-hander’s first victory in over a month. Overall, the Twins are 2-11 in Santana’s outings this season, losing six of the games after he departed.

In his career, Santana is 6-9 in with an ugly 5.96 ERA in 18 starts against the Bronx Bombers. The current roster owns a .260 batting average against with Alex Rodriguez doing the most damage over the years. He is 14-for-47 with 4 home runs and 12 RBIs. Santana has held Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, and newcomer Ike Davis in check, holding each to sub-.200 averages.

Offensively, the Twins’ 4.03 runs per game rank 25th in MLB. The lineup takes advantage of porous pitching, though, scoring 4.8 on 9.3 hits per game against starters carrying a 4.00 ERA or higher.

The Over is a 46-23-4 when the Twins play this season, and a remarkable 24-4-2 in the last 30 games. During the latter stretch, Minny and its opponents combine for 11.9 runs per game, soaring over an 8.6 average total.


New York Yankees (36-36) - Michael Pineda (3-7, 5.82 ERA)
Like the Twins, the Yankees abuse starters sporting a 4.00 ERA or higher. Knocking in 5.2 runs on 9.1 hits per game, they have crossed the plate four times or more in 18 of their last 19 in this spot.

This is great news for Michael Pineda, who has struggled mightily this season. The 6-foot-7 righty also pitched his last game against today’s opponent exactly one week ago, earning a no-decision in the 7-6 Yankee’s victory. Pineda exited the contest with three earned runs on six hits in 5.1 frames. He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA against the Twins lifetime.

Pineda has improved a bit over the last calendar month, lowering his 6.92 ERA to 5.82 in his last four outings. Still, walks are up and when hitters do make contact, they are hitting it hard, wrapping 65 line drives to date this season.

The Yankees are just 13-13 when Pineda goes off as home chalk with -152 average MLB Odds. Bettors have returned slightly more than 20 percent profit fading the one-time All Star in this spot.


Final Analysis
Both of today’s starters are prone to blow ups, but the +160 odds backing Minny in the first half may hold some value. The Yankees yield 3.64 runs through the first five innings of Pineda’s outings this season, going 3-10-1 overall.

The Twins, meanwhile, allow 2.84 behind Santana, and own an equally bad 2-10-1 record. It is a crapshoot with these two of late, but the price is too good to pass up for the visitors. Twins +160 to win the first 5 innings is today’s Free MLB Picks.

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Free MLB Pick:  F5 Twins +160 
Best Line Offered:  at YouWager

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