MLB Picks: Finding Betting Angles To Back Brewers vs Padres At Petco Park

Kevin Stott

Monday, August 1, 2016 4:06 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 1, 2016 4:06 PM UTC

The Milwaukee Brewers head to Petco Park for Game 1 of a 3-games series against the Padres, is backing the Under and this current Trend the bet? Here are our picks based on what the data says.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres 
The Milwaukee Brewers (47-56) and RHP Jimmy Nelson (6-9) head to Petco Park in San Diego on Monday night to face new RHP Jarred Cosart (0-1) and the Padres (45-60) in Game 1 of this 3-game series. Offshore sportsbooks have opened up the Padres as slight -113 Home favorites and the Brewers are +103 on the take-back (5Dimes). The game’s Total (Runs) opening up at 8 at Heritage. The Run Line odds here sees San Diego -1½ runs priced at +178 with visiting Milwaukee +1½ runs priced at a very lofty -202. The scheduled Starting Pitchers for Game 2 are RHP Luis Perdomo (2-0) for the Padres and RHP Zach Davies (8-4) for the Brewers while in Game 3 on Wednesday, San Diego is scheduled to send RHP Edwin Jackson (1-2) to the hill against Venezuelan RHP Junior Guerra (7-2) for the Brewers.


Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers and Manager Craig Counsell have actually been playing pretty decent Baseball of late, W4 in a row and going 8-3 in their L11. And in Sunday’s series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Counsell had a Starting Batting Order of: SS Jonathan Villar, LF Jake Elmore, 3B Hernán Pérez, 1B Chris Carter, 2B Scooter Gennett, C Martin Maldonado, RF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF Keon Broxton with RHP Matt Garza getting the pill for Milwaukee. 

The Brewers had regular starting C Matt Lucroy (.300, 50 RBI) out as the bartering to try to obtain the All-Star backstop before the Trade Deadline continued, with a prospective deal with the Cleveland Indians being vetoed by Lucroy who exercised his No-Trade clause in his contract on Sunday and the Rangers and Mets among the latest suitors. And star Ryan Braun (Side) remained out of the Brewers starting Lineup on Sunday. The Brewers defeated the Pirates, 4-2 on Sunday to win that aforementioned 4th straight as Pérez (2 Singles), Gennett (2 Singles) and Maldonado (2 Singles) all had 2 Hits apiece and Carter and Broxton hit solo Home Runs in a game the hosts led all the way and a victory which gave Milwaukee a 3-game Sweep over the Bucs in a series in which the Brewers allowed just 6 total runs.


San Diego Padres
The Padres homered in a MLB-tying 25 straight games this season, and if you had to pick before the MLB Regular Season began who might be the one MLB team to accomplish that ultra-rare feat, San Diego would be in the bottom five selections. On Sunday, the Padres  lost 3-2 to the Cincinnati Reds for their 9th Loss in 13 games since the All-Star Break and in that game. Padres Manager Andy Green had a Batting Order of: CF Adam Jankowski, LF Alexi Amarista, 1B Wil Myers, 2B Ryan Schimpf, RF Jabari Blash, C Christian Bethancourt, SS Jose Rondon, 3B Adam Rosales with Paul Clemens getting the start for San Diego. The Padres were limited to just 5 Hits by Cincinnati pitching and the Loss combined with the San Francisco Giants Win over the Washington Nationals left San Diego a distant 16 Games behind (GB) in the NL West heading into play on Monday. The Padres scored a paltry 4 Runs against the Reds in the series (0, 2, 2), won by Cincinnati, 2-1.


Starting Pitchers Report Card
RHR Jarred Cosart will be making his Padres debut after being acquired from the Miami Marlins on Friday and this will be his first Start ever at Petco Park and the 26-year-old has only faced Milwaukee one time, allowing just 1 Run (Earned) in 6.0 IP. The only Brewers played to have faced and gotten a Hit off Cosart (1.78 WHIP) is the possibly leaving C Jonathan Lucroy (1-2) while Scooter Gennett is 0-for-3 against the League City, Texas native. 

Padres Alexei Ramirez (3-5), Wil Myers (1-4) and Alexi Amarista (1-5) have all gotten Hits off Milwaukee RHP Jimmy Nelson, although the total number of Plate Appearances against the scheduled Milwaukee Starter makes this sort of seem like a showdown between two Pitchers dealing with these respective Brewers and Padres lineups for the first time. This seems good for the Under and with an 8½ in the MLB Odds, finding that 8½ and taking the Under is recommended. Why? The Trends are supportive of this, the Travel will make Milwaukee groggy and with Lucroy a big question mark and slugger Ryan Braun (Side) still nursing an Injury, this seems like a low-scoring tight game may emerge so taking the Brewers +1½ on the Run Line (-202 at Heritage) and laying the lofty lumber seems wise with Milwaukee playing good ball and guaranteed to get 9 Innings of At Bats...unless the game somehow gets rained out.


Betting Prediction
Milwaukee is 6-1 in its L7 overall, 16-7 its L23 against teams with a Losing Record and 6-1 ints L7 games on Grass. But the Brewers are also 3-7 their L10 and 17-41 their L58 Road dates vs. a RHP Starter, and a lousy 4-11 their L15 Monday games. Milwaukee is also just 6-16 its L22 Road games, 0-4 in Nelson’s L4 Starts against the NL West, 2-8 his L10 Starts on Grass and 1-5 the L6 games against a team with a Losing Home Record (Padres 24-27). The Padres are 5-1 their L6 Home games against a RHP Starter an 4-1 their L5 games here at Petco Park in San Diego but the Friars are just 1-6 their L7 vs. the NL Central and 2-5 in their L7 Monday games. So, maybe nobody wins?


Some Totals Trends 
The Under is 12-3-3 the L18 Brewers Road games against a team with a Losing Record, 4-1 the L5 Monday games, 10-4-1 the L15 Milwaukee Road games and 4-1 both the L5 Padres games on Grass and at Home. And more Under fodder: The Under is a powerful 17-5-1 the L23 Game 1’s of a Milwaukee series, 7-2-1 the L10 against a RHP and the Under is 6-0 in Nelson’s L6 Game 1 Starts of a series. The Under is also 4-0-1 the L5 meetings in this series here at Petco Park and 5-1-1 the L7 meetings overall and with the Brewers coming in having played 7 Unders in their L11 games (7-3-1 Under) and the Padres having played 3 straight Unders—all against the Redlegs—backing the Under in the Total market at 8½ seems smart in this spot. And, as mentioned, backing Nelson and the semi-hot (W4) BrewCrew and taking the 1½ Runs on the Run Line seems wise as a MLB Pick with Milwaukee an impressive 7-3 the L10 in the series. But remember that Braun has been sitting, Lucroy is/was still being shopped and there is that Travel involved.


Free MLB Pick: Under 8 -110 and/or Brewers -1½ +155
Best Lines Offered: at 5Dimes

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