MLB Picks: Fade Shorthanded Jays Tonight vs. Home Dog Braves +220

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 5:34 PM GMT

Toronto has lost two in a row sans Tulowitzki & Encarnacion, scoring just two runs in the process. But the Jays are huge favorites tonight vs. Atlanta. Should our MLB pick go to the dogs?

Jays-Braves Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best price we could find on Toronto and lefty David Price was the -245 at GTBets, while Atlanta and Shelby Miller were getting +229 at BetOnline. The Jays could also be played at -140 on the run line at JustBet.

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The Situation
Atlanta took the opener of this series Tuesday night 3-2, scoring the winning run on an Andrelton Simmons base hit in the bottom of the ninth. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Braves, while even with the loss Toronto is 32-11 over its last 43 games.

At 57-88 Atlanta is struggling through its worst season in recent memory.

At 82-62 the Blue Jays own a three-game lead over the second-place Yankees in the AL East.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in April the Braves took two of three games at Rogers Centre, with two of those games playing OVER the totals.

 

Wednesday's Whirlers
Miller (5-14, 2.86), by our strict standards, is 16-for-29 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last five. Last Thursday he gave up three runs and nine base-runners (six hits + three walks) through six innings against the Mets, and over his last five outings he's allowed 20 runs – 17 earned – through 30 1/3 innings. On the season Miller has allowed 159 hits, just 11 homers, through 182 innings, walked 63 and struck out 156.

Atlanta is 10-19 in Miller's starts, with the totals skewing UNDER by an 18-10 margin.

In two career starts against Toronto – one last year while with St. Louis, the other back in April of this season – Miller has allowed just two runs and eight hits through 15 innings; his teams won both those games.

Price (15-5, 2.46) is 21-for-29 on quality starts, seven-for-eight since joining the Jays in that trade with Detroit back in late July. Last Friday he gave up two runs in five innings against the Yankees, although he needed 96 pitches to get those 15 outs, and over his last three starts he's allowed six runs through 19 innings. For the season Price has allowed 176 hits through 201 innings, walked 42 and struck out 203.

The Jays are 6-2 in Price's starts, with the UNDERS going 5-3.

This will be Price's first start against Atlanta since 2012, when he was still with Tampa.

 

Wednesday's Batting Splits
Toronto leads the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .330 team on-base percentage, and ranks second with a .447 team slugging percentage.

Atlanta, on the other hand, ranks 24th against left-handed pitching with a .307 team OBP and dead last with a .341 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 37-27 in games played at Turner Field this season, which are averaging 8.6 runs per.

 

Injury Update
Toronto is without SS Troy Tulowitzki, who's on the DL with a fractured scapula, and IF Edwin Encarnacion has missed recent action with a bad finger, and is questionable for tonight.

 

Jays-Braves Free Picks
Miller may be baseball's worst tough-luck case of this season, and tonight he has to go against Price. But in losing its last two games without Encarnacion and Tulo Toronto has tallied a total of just two runs. We believe the value on your MLB picks tonight line lies with Atlanta. Also, runs might be hard to come by tonight, so we're thinking UNDER.

MLB Picks: Braves +220 & UNDER 7.5 runs at 5Dimes