MLB Picks: Expect Rangers vs. Angels To Be A High-Scoring Affair

Jay Pryce

Sunday, April 10, 2016 12:03 PM GMT

The Angels look to even up their four-game series against the Rangers Sunday afternoon, following a 4-1 defeat to their AL West rivals last night. Get your MLB pick and betting analysis here. 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (1-4) – Jered Weaver (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Jered Weaver, the MLB strikeout leader in 2010, has seen his velocity shrink a ton over the last couple of years. The 33-year-old right-hander reportedly struggled to top 80 mph on his fastball entering spring training, undergoing a litany of tests to his neck and shoulder in search of some kind of excuse. He threw four-innings against Class-A hitters on Tuesday in anticipation of his debut, where he reportedly hit 86 mph on the gun a few times, not too good for a former power pitcher who relies on his two-seamer.

Weaver held the Rangers to two runs in 12 innings last season, but both outings came very late in the season (September and October). Over the last two years, hitters have shelled Weaver early on, as he builds arms strength and explores ways to adjust to his diminishing stuff. In March and April over the last two seasons, the Halos are 3-8 overall with he and the pen gifting 6.1 runs per game. The OVER is 9-1-1 in these contests.

The Angels smashed left-handed starters at home last season. Averaging 4.5 runs per game, they went 16-8, returning nearly 20 percent to bettors in this spot. Whatever challenges the lineup faced came against more elite starters. Versus those with an ERA above 2.80 on the year, the team went 13-3 on 5.1 runs.

For what it's worth, the Halos are 14-2 in Weavers last 16 home starts versus Texas.

 

Texas Rangers (3-3) – Martin Perez (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
Texas has lost in Perez's last four outings, including his only start this season, a 10-2 drubbing against the Mariners, and a 2-1 defeat to Weaver and the Angels in last years final regular-season series. The young Venezuelan owns a career 4.33 road ERA, and the Rangers gave up 4.9 runs per away start last season. He's 0-6 with a 5.25 ERA in nine starts outside of Arlington since April 2014.

Perez has four starts versus the Halos, going 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA. The current Angels roster is 21 for 81 (.259) with only four extra-base hits (two doubles, two triples) against him. They've yet to hit a home run.

Adrian Beltre, who smoked Anaheim last night with two doubles and a dinger, is integral to Texas' success away from home. Since the start of last season, the Rangers are just 19-31 and scoring a paltry 2.7 runs per game when the four-time Silver Slugger goes hitless away from Arlington. Beltre is just 13 of 65 (.200) at the plate against Weaver, but five of the hits have come in the last two seasons.

The Rangers suffered a huge blow last night, losing catcher Robinson Chirinos to a broken right forearm. Time will tell to see how this will affect the MLB odds boards. Bryan Holaday, a defense-first player who came over in a trade with the Tigers, will assume duties behind the plate.

 

Final Analysis
The Angels have crossed the plate a total of nine times this season. Their bats should find a little more success today. Perez and the Rangers pen yielded three runs or more in each of his road outings last season. Weaver's velocity is gone, and if his arsenal of junk is off, expect an extended batting practice for Texas. OVER 8.5 (-120) is my MLB pick for today. 

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline