MLB Picks: Expect Mets To Topple Greinke In His Return To The Field With Diamondbacks

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, August 9, 2016 3:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2016 3:50 PM UTC

The Diamondbacks will travel to New York to meet the Mets in the first of a three-game series tonight at Citi Field. Let’s examine the matchup, as well as the MLB odds, and cash a winner tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs N.Y. Mets   
One step forward, two steps back. That is the grind that has been my Major League Baseball season recently. After breaking out of our shame spiral on Sunday with a cover by the Nationals over the Giants in our MLB picks on Sunday, it was back to the same ol’, same ol’ when the Marlins watched a 5-1 lead slip away courtesy of a seven-hit game by Brandon Crawford, the first in 41 years…of course. The Giants wound up winning the game 8-7 in 14 innings and what made it sting even more is that we not only laid the -145 that the MLB odds makers were dealing but also took a stab with under 6 ½ runs. Brutal.

Okay, well there’s nothing more we can do than take Taylor Swift’s advice and shake it off, get back to work and know that we are still up over 21 units to the good on the season. Let’s go!


Greinke Back After Rehab Stint
The Arizona Diamondbacks gave Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.62, 1.16) 206 million reasons to leave the powerhouse LA Dodgers and make his home in the desert. But the preseason optimism of fielding a contending team has hardly come to fruition. The D-Backs are hopelessly out of postseason contention and Greinke is returning from a trip to the DL after straining an oblique muscle in late June.

The timing could not have been worse as Greinke appeared to be getting back on track after a bumpy start to the season by posting a 1.63 ERA in June. His last appearance on June 28th ended suddenly after only two innings of work against the Phillies when he allowed one run on four hits which resulted in a 4-3 loss at home. The 32-year-old ace is 4-2 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 0.950. His team's record is 4-4 (-1.1 units) in these starts.


Betting Analysis
Though Arizona’s Greinke has shown flashes of brilliance, he is not the same pitcher that he was last season with the Dodgers when he was edged by Jake Arrieta of the Cubs for the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. In his last rehab appearance, he surrendered five runs in five innings of work last Wednesday with Triple-A Reno. Greinke has had moderate success against the Mets in the past with a 2.68 ERA yet the results have been a middling 4-4 for his team’s record against New York.

Let’s not forget that the Mets have been hitting as of late, averaging nearly five runs per contest over their last eight games while the D-Backs were averaging little more than three runs per game before they broke out of their slumber with a 9-3 rout of the Brewers on Sunday. New York will send Steven Matz (8-8, 3.78, 1.16) to the hill who has never faced Arizona but the southpaw had two impressive performances before he got lit up by the Yankees in his last outing when he allowed six runs on six hits over six innings of work resulting in a 9-5 loss.

But perhaps more important than anything is the fact that Greinke will not be allowed to go long in his first game back from rehab. The Diamondbacks will take no chances with the high-priced talent who will lead their staff for years to come. That’s when the Diamondbacks’ woeful bullpen and their league worst 5.20 ERA takes over.

Although Steven Matz was hit hard in his last outing, he should be able to rebound against an Arizona team that has just 45 wins on the season. In addition, the Mets’ bats appear to be picking up the pace and if Greinke has not recovered fully from his ailment then it will be an early night for the 12-year veteran.


MLB Pick: Mets -123 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Swinger’s MLB Record: 59-36, +21.29 units

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