MLB Picks: Expect Heavy Lumber Today in Colorado & Bet OVER in Giants vs. Rockies

Charles Stark

Sunday, September 6, 2015 12:16 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 6, 2015 12:16 PM UTC

I'm looking for the Giants to break out the lumber today and for Colorado to do enough against the sterling Madison Bumgarner to get us a pretty high final.

MLB Odds
The MLB odds market came out with a total of 10 for this game which actually seems a little bit high considering one of the pitchers is Madison Bumgarner. When we break down the game though it starts to make a bit of sense. You can still get some pretty low juice on this game to take over the total at -105 at Pinnacle Sports.


San Francisco Giants
Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for the Giants with a 2.96 ERA, 1.03 whip, 200 strikeouts, and a 16-7 record. He is having another solid season and in his last 10 starts he has pitched well with only one bad outing in Texas where he allowed six earned runs in seven innings. Besides that he has been great allowing just 12 earned runs in his other nine starts. In his career he has pitched pretty well in Colorado so he has the experience there, but on the road overall this season he has been less than perfect. Away from San Francisco he has a 4.04 ERA and batters are hitting .258 against him, so if teams are to get to him their best chance is in this type of scenario. Also, and this is not why I'm taking the over, Bumgarner is a really good hitting pitcher so the Giants won't suffer in that spot of the order.

San Francisco ranks 14th in runs scored per game at 4.22, 13th in OPS at .725, and fourth in batting average hitting .266 as a team. They have struggled to put up runs consistently in their last several games but I like them to put up a considerable amount of runs today. They are third in the National League in batting average against left-handers at .267, but more importantly they are overdue to start scoring runs in bunches.


Colorado Rockies
Yohan Flande gets the start for Colorado with a 4.04 ERA, 1.33 whip, 37 strikeouts, and a 3-1 record. He has been a spot starter for the Rockies and has pitch pretty decent in his last five starts allowing 14 runs in his last 27 innings. In his last start against one of the best hitting teams in the National League in the Diamondbacks he allowed just two earned runs off of five hits in five innings. Still, he is not the type of pitcher to come out and completely shut a team down so I look for the Giants to do a lot of damage against him today.

Colorado ranks fourth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.53, second in OPS at .762, and third in team batting average hitting .270 as a team. Of course in Coors Field all their statistics go up hitting .304 at home with an OPS of .848, ridiculous. Although they are facing one of the best left-handers in the major leagues at home is always a good opportunity for them to get more than a few runs. I don't think they will put up a ton against Bumgarner but I look for them to have a lot of quality at-bats and get around four or five runs minimum today.

Final Analysis
I like for the Giants to put up quite a few runs today and for the Rockies to hang with them somewhat. At the end of the day I think we're in to see a higher final than odds makers anticipate of somewhere around 8-5. For your MLB picks I suggest adding over the total in this matchup as one of your plays, back the over.


MLB Pick: Giants & Rockies 'OVER' 10 at Pinnacle +101

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