MLB Picks: Don't be Shocked if the Brooms are out in Arlington

Charles Stark

Sunday, October 11, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Although Texas is at home for Game 3 of the ALDS, it makes sense for Toronto to be favored. Still, I like the value here on Texas so I'm going to back them on the plus money line.

MLB odds
Odds makers came out with this game making the Rangers around the +120 underdog. For one of your MLB picks today I suggest going ahead and taking them getting some good value at home. at Bookmaker sports book you can get them at +123.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
Marco Estrada takes the mound for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 whip, 131 strikeouts, and a 13-8 record. Although he has been better at home he is not been bad on the road with a 3.29 ERA and batters hitting just .210 against him. He is probably been the biggest surprise out of all the Toronto starters. In his one start against the Rangers this season he pitched well allowing just one earned run off of four hits in six innings. That was also in Texas, which is just another reason to make Toronto the favorite.

Offensively Toronto ranks first in runs scored per game at 5.48, first in OPS at .793, and third in batting average hitting .267 as a team. They have not swung the bats as well as they are capable of in the first two games of the series. It seems they were believing the hype a little bit too soon and the Rangers came in probably feeling a little bit disrespected and were able to grab some momentum. It'll be interesting to see how the Blue Jays react coming into this game down 0-2. On the road this season their offensive stats drop significantly compared to when they hit in Toronto.

 

Texas Rangers
Martin Perez gets the start for Texas and comes in with a 4.46 ERA, 1.42 whip, 48 strikeouts, and a 3-6 record. After coming back from injury in mid July he has not pitched as well as his career stats would indicate. Still, in his last five home starts he has pitched very well allowing just nine earned runs total in just over 34 innings of work. In his last home start against the Angels he was outstanding allowing just one earned run off of four hits in seven innings. He is not faced Toronto this season but I think they'll actually benefit him more than the Blue Jays.

Offensively this season including playoffs Texas ranks third in runs scored per game at 4.65, ninth in OPS at .736, and 10th in batting average hitting .257 as a team. All their offensive stats go up significantly at home where they go from hitting .240 to hitting .274. Although Estrada held them down in his one appearance against them in Texas I think it is a tall task for him to have that same kind of performance twice.

This is simply just good value getting the Rangers at home at plus money. I think the odds makers are enticing people to go ahead and back Toronto with the mindset of they cannot possibly get swept. But this a good Texas team, with a good veteran core with or without Beltre, for one of my MLB picks today I will go ahead and take the value on the Rangers.

MLB Picks: Texas +136 at 5Dimes

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