MLB Picks: Don't Hesitate to Add 'Over' to Tuesday's Betting Ticket

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 5, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

Wanting to try and beat the MLB betting total lines on a busy Tuesday night on the diamond? This skilled baseball betting guru has got you covered with these two top choices.

San Francisco Giants (Vogelsong) vs. San Diego Padres (Cashner)
The Giants are on a roll, having won four straight games ahead of tonight's matchup with the Padres. They're an even 13-13 on the season now, with San Diego slightly ahead at 14-13.

Tonight's MLB Odds actually have the Padres favored on the road, with the line at -115 or so. The total is at an even seven runs as of now, but there's still a lot of time for those lines to shift as we get closer to first pitch.

Why is San Diego the chalk in this spot? It's clear oddsmakers have little faith in Ryan Vogelsong, and we can't blame them. The righty has been awful so far this season, getting tagged for a brutal 9.31 ERA and 2.02 WHIP. No, those are not typos. Vogelsong has been an utter disaster, having only logged six innings once in five starts, and there's little reason to expect things to turn around in his favor.

The reason the O/U is as low as it is is simple: Andrew Cashner. Cashner has been far more reliable, holding a 2.61 ERA and 1.29 WHIP despite his 1-4 win-loss record. Since a rough season opener, the right-hander has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four assignments, thus lowering his earned run average dramatically.

Still, we are going to fully fade Vogelsong until he gives us a reason not to, and that includes total plays too. The Padres have beefed up their order considerably and should be able to make life difficult on the home pitcher here - with that said, we are going to add the OVER to your MLB picks on Tuesday night.

MLB Pick: OVER 7 at Pinnacle Sports


Houston Astros (Feldman) vs. Texas Rangers (Rodriguez)
Our next stop is Houston, where the red-hot Astros will take on the lowly Rangers. As you'd expect, Houston is the clear-cut favorite at all of the top sportsbooks, with the lines approaching -160 at some outlets.

There's no doubt Houston's early success has been one of the biggest surprises so far. The Astros lost last night, but they're still 18-8 on the year and have already built up a seven-game lead in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Rangers are dead last in the division at 9-16.

In game two of the series tonight, we'll have Scott Feldman and Wandy Rodriguez taking the hill. Neither starter has been lighting the world on fire, which explains why we see a high total of 8.5 on the board, with some sportsbooks even listing 9 for the taking. 

Feldman checks in at 2-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, though he's only really gotten beaten up badly once this season. Four of his five starts have come at home and he's recorded a 4.38 ERA in those outings. As for Rodriguez, he's 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over his first couple of assignments.

If you didn't know, the Astros have been killing it offensively in the early goings of 2015. Sure, they're tops in strikeouts, but they also lead the MLB in both home runs and steals, making them one of the most dangerous offenses out there. We wouldn't be shocked to see Houston make Rodriguez work very hard for outs here, and a labored start often leads to an early exit and the introduction of bullpen - that would also play into the Astros' hands, considering the Rangers have the worst pen in all of baseball. Don't hestitate to add the OVER to your MLB Picks here tonight.

MLB Pick: OVER 8.5

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