MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Rockies to go 'Over'

Joe Freda

Tuesday, July 2, 2013 2:40 PM GMT

Free MLB picks for tonight's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies. While the moneyline might look tempting, we are locked in with a play on the total tonight.

The Los Angeles Dodgers went 6-1 in last week’s homestand, with the OVER cashing at 4-3. Tuesday’s MLB betting now has Don Mattingly’s club heading north to face the Colorado Rockies, with Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw (6-5, 2.08 ERA) opposing Rockies righty Roy Oswalt (0-2, 7.36 ERA).

Where does the best value lies for our MLB picks in this matchup tonight?

Check out our Tuesday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

Dodgers, Rockies win weekend sets

Los Angeles finished last week’s hot stretch with Sunday’s 6-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, cashing at minus 111 MLB odds. Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig poked a double and triple as part of a 4-for-5 day, with he and his mates edging Philadelphia in hits, 14-6. 

Colorado began this weekend’s series against the San Francisco Giants notching a pair of victories, while dropping Sunday’s finale as a 117 home dog, 5-2. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez cracked his 22nd homer in the defeat, while catcher Wilin Rosario poked an RBI-double. 

Kershaw goes eight for win 

Kershaw picked up his first win in seven starts with Wednesday’s 4-2 victory for Los Angeles over the San Francisco Giants, holding on to cash as 189 home ‘chalk.’ The sixth-year hurler allowed both of San Francisco’s runs, giving up four hits over eight innings. 

Los Angeles’ A.J. Ellis poked a double in the sixth inning, driving home mate Andre Ethier to give their club a 3-2 lead. Dodgers reliever Kenley Jansen tossed two strikeouts in the duel’s final frame en route to his sixth save. 

Oswalt shelled in Boston 

Oswalt logged a second straight loss on the same day of action, falling in Colorado’s 5-3 defeat as a 161 road dog to the Boston Red Sox. The 35-year-old allowed five runs on nine hits, lasting six innings. 

Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer homered twice, while Gonzalez and Rosario united to bat 4-for-8. Colorado’s Tyler Colvin struck out four times, leaving three men on base.

[gameodds]3/237904/?r3=43-999997-192/dec&r-1=43-999997-192/us[/gameodds]

Back the OVER in Colorado

Kershaw opened as a 175 road favorite at William Hill, dropping to minus 160 after early wagers on Colorado. The ‘total’ was first listed at nine, moving flat after the OVER began with a minus 120 tag. 

I am backing the OVER here, looking for some slugging on both sides in this opener.

Oswalt has been loose in his two road starts, giving up a 1.73 WHIP and .365 OBP. The veteran’s shift to the confines of Coors Field is unlikely to result in a tighter outing, with the OVER going 5-2 in Los Angeles’ last seven matchups against starters with a WHIP above 1.30.

Kershaw gave up eight hits in last month’s visit to Denver, while OVER backers collected in a 7-5 win for Los Angeles. Colorado has bat .276 against left-handed pitching at home, with Carlos Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario uniting for three homers in 32 career at-bat’s facing Kershaw.

The OVER is 5-1 in this year’s six meetings between these foes, with the rivals combining for 13.2 RPG. Look for another high-octane affair here, cashing OVER tickets by the matchup’s middle frames. 

MLB Picks: OVER 9 at William Hill

Get Jeff Grant's take on this games pitching matchup here.