MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Phillies Series Betting Coverage

Darin Zank

Friday, August 16, 2013 1:19 PM GMT

LA now takes its show on the road for a week, beginning with a three-game series in Philadelphia starting Friday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.

 

18th Aug
Sunday Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

Sunday's Series Finale

LA continued along on its epic roll with a 5-0 victory Saturday, behind eight shut-out innings from Clay Kershaw.

In getting shut-out in the first two games of this series Philly has tallied six hits and committed four errors.

The Dodgers won Saturday as -215 favorites on the MLB betting line, and again, to our delight, covered on the run line.

LA goes for an 11th straight win and a sweep of the series Sunday afternoon (1:35 pm ET, TBS).

Sunday's Betting Line

In early betting most books were listing Los Angeles and Ricky Nolasco at around -110 over Philly and Cole Hamels, with a total of 7.5.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Hamels (5-13, 3.65) is 17-for-25 on quality starts this year, and four for his last four. Last time out he threw a complete game against Atlanta, allowing just one run and six hits in a 5-1 Philly victory. And over his last four starts he's given up just five ER through 31 innings.

For the season Hamels has allowed 156 hits in 165 innings, walked 41 and struck out 146.

But in large part due to some terrible run support the Phillies have won just seven of Hamels' 25 starts this year.

This will be Hamels' first start this year against Los Angeles; the last time he faced the Dodgers Hamels gave up three ER in six innings of an 8-3 Philly loss in June of last season.

Nolasco (9-9, 3.82) is 11-for-25 on quality starts this season, two-for-seven since joining the Blue Crew. Last time out he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings vs. the Mets, and since joining the Dodgers he's allowed 13 ER in 39 1/3 innings.

On the season Nolasco has given up 152 hits in 151 2/3 innings, walked 38 and struck out 119.

LA has won six of Nolasco's seven starts since the trade.

This will be Nolasco's fourth start this year against Philadelphia; pitching for Miami earlier this year Nolasco faced Philly three times, allowing seven ER and 19 hits in 18 2/3 innings.

Our Take on Sunday's Game

Poor Hamels has been pitching in lousy luck this season, and there's little to lead us to believe that will change today. We'll go with LA for our free MLB picks for Sunday.

[gameodds]3/241575/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Pick: Take the Dodgers at the -106 at Bet365.

 

17th Aug
Saturday Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

LA won Friday's series opener 4-0, with help from a two-run homer from Hanley Ramirez and seven-plus shut-out innings from Zack Greinke. 

Not only did the Dodgers win as -110 favorites on Friday's MLB betting line, but to our delight they also covered on the run line at a price of +150. 

Philly fired manager Charlie Manuel Friday afternoon, replacing him with former Cub great Ryne Sandberg. Our guess is this change won't have much of an impact on the Phillies as they play out the rest of this lost season; they're just not a very good team at the moment. 

LA will try to extend its current winning streak to 10 games when the teams get together for Game 2 of this series Saturday night (7:05 pm ET).

Saturday's Betting Line 

As of Saturday AM most books were listing LA and Clay Kershaw at around -200 over Philly and Kyle Kendrick, with a total of 7.5.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up 

Kendrick (10-9, 4.48), by our strict standards, is 12-for-24 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last five. Most recently he got nicked for four ER and 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings against Washington, and since the All-Star break he's allowed 23 ER in 24 innings.

For the season Kendrick has given up 166 hits in 148 2/3 innings, walked 36 and struck out 89. 

Philadelphia, a team that's 15 games under .500, is 13-11 in Kendrick's starts this year.

In his one start this year against Los Angeles Kendrick got clipped for four runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 6-1 Philly loss back on June 30.

Kershaw (11-7, 1.88) is 21-for-25 on quality starts this year, and working on a string of nine in a row. Last time out he held Tampa to one earned run and three hits through eight innings, and since the All-Star break he's given up six ER and 22 hits in 37 innings.

On the season Big K has allowed 119 hits in 182 1/3 innings, walked 39 and whiffed 174. He also leads the Majors with a 0.87 WHIP.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Dodgers are only 14-11 in Kershaw's starts this year.

This will be Kershaw's first start against the Phillies this season; last year, in two starts vs. Philly, Kershaw gave up four ER and 13 hits in 15 innings; LA won both those games.

[gameodds]3/241488/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Saturday's Game

Picking Dodgers games hasn't been too difficult lately; the toughest call has been whether to play LA on the money line or the run line. We cashed in at a nice price with the Dodgers on the money line Friday night, and we're thinking along the same lines for our free MLB pick for today.

Pick: Take LA at the -117 on the run line at Pinbet.   

16th AUG
Friday Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

For a breakdown of today's games, check out today's Daily Baseball Betting Lines & Odds Report!

The LA Dodgers are on a near-magical run; not only are they winning games at a crazy rate, but they're winning games in crazy ways, like hitting homers in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the score before winning in extra innings.

So the hottest team in baseball takes on a team just playing out the string. How should this series be approached from a sports betting perspective?

Dodgers-Phillies Betting Lines

As of Friday morning, most sportsbooks were listing Friday's series opener, which matches Los Angeles' Zack Greinke against Philly's Cliff Lee, at right around a "Pick 'em", with a total of seven.

Also, The Greek was chalking the Dodgers at -140 to win this series, with the Phillies getting +120 as home dogs on the MLB odds.

[gameodds]3/241441/?r3=349-43-192-19-238-118-1096-169/us&r-1=349-43-192/us[/gameodds]

 Dodgers-Phillies Series Set-Up

Los Angeles just swept three games at home from the Mets this week, winning Wednesday night's series finale 5-4 by getting a game-tying two-run homer from Andre Ethier in the bottom of the ninth, and back-to-back doubles from Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez in the bottom of the 14th for the victory. The Dodgers have won eight games in a row and, amazingly, 40 of their last 48. Not bad for a team that was 12 games under .500 back on June 21st.

So LA, at 70-50, now leads the NL West by 7.5 games over second-place Arizona. The Dodgers have also pulled to within 3.5 games of Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.

Philly, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games in Atlanta, and has now lost 19 of its last 23 games.

At 53-67 the Phillies are- oh, hell, it's not even worth mentioning.

In the only previous meeting this season between these teams, the Dodgers took three of four games in Philly back in late June. Three of those games played  ‘Over’ on the totals, as the teams combined to score 41 runs.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Lee (10-5, 3.18), by our strict standards, is 15-for-22 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last five. Last time out he gave up three runs in six innings vs. Washington, and over his last five starts he's allowed 19 ER and 39 hits through 30 1/3 innings.

During the season, Lee has given up 139 hits in 155 2/3 innings, walked 26 and struck out 145. 

 Philly won 10 of Lee's first 15 starts this season, but has lost six of his last seven outings. In his one start this year vs. LA Lee gave up three runs on four hits, walked three and whiffed 10, in seven innings of a 4-3 Phillies loss back on June 29.

Greinke (10-3, 3.21) is 10-for-19 on quality starts this season, and three for his last three. Last time out he held Tampa Bay scoreless on six hits through 6 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER through 19 2/3 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts.

Greinke has allowed 112 hits in 117 2/3 innings, walked 33 and struck out 93 for the season.

LA has won 15 of Greinke's 19 starts this year. In his one start this season vs. Philly Greinke gave up four runs and 12 hits, including a couple of homers, in seven innings of a 6-4 Dodgers victory back on June 27th.

In the battle of the bullpens for this series Los Angeles ranks 13th in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA and has converted 36 of 52 save opportunities, while the Phillies rank 27th with a 4.26 ERA and are just 22-for-35 on save chances.

Dodgers-Phillies Stickwork

LA ranks fifth in the Majors in team OBP at .331, 15th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game and 26th in homers with 96.

Philly ranks 25th in OBP at .305, 19th in homers with 113 and just 25th in scoring at 3.8 RPG.

Dodgers-Phillies Betting Trends

  • LA is 22-18 vs. left-handed starters this season.
  • Philly is 41-52 vs. righties.
  • The Dodgers are 33-25 on the road this year.
  • The Phillies, while 14 games under .500 overall, are 29-27 at home.
  • The  ‘Over’/’Under’ is 32-23 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this year.

Dodgers-Phillies Injury Update

LA is still playing without OF Matt Kemp, who's on the DL with a bad ankle. But for whatever reason the Dodgers are 39-19 without him this year.

Philly, meanwhile, is without Ryan Howard, who's on the DL with a tear in his knee. The Phillies are 14-26 without Howard this season.

Our Take on Friday's Game

LA is hot, Philly is not; Greinke gets the edge in the pitching match-up, based on recent performance; and the Dodgers have the better lineup and better bullpen. So LA seems like an obvious choice. But we like to gamble, and play for nice prices, so we'll go with the visiting Dodgers on the run line for Friday's free MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take the LA Dodgers at -1.5 (+150) on the run line at William Hill

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