MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Padres Series Coverage

Willie Bee

Friday, June 20, 2014 11:44 AM UTC

Friday, Jun. 20, 2014 11:44 AM UTC

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will decide their series at Petco Park this afternoon, and SBR is on hand with a preview and free MLB pick.


22nd June
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3

By: Willie Bee


Josh Beckett set the tone for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, tossing seven shutout innings in their eventual 4-2 victory over the San Diego Padres. The win evened the 3-game set in San Diego, and now sets the stage for a rubber match between the NL West rivals on Sunday.

Los Angeles is just about a unanimous -140 favorite according to SBR's live MLB odds, the Dodgers trotting Hyun-Jin Ryu out to the mound at Petco Park in the all-southpaw pitching clash. San Diego's Eric Stults opposes Ryu in the 4:10 PM (ET) start, and baseball bettors will be making a decision which way to go on a 7 run total.

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Stults Winless In Four June Starting Assignments
Ryu's fine pitching helped spoil our 'over' pick this past Monday when the Dodgers and Rockies opened their 3-game series in Los Angeles. The South Korean surrendered just one run during his six innings of work in LA's 6-1 triumph, giving Ryu a 5-1 record in his first six starts after about a month-long DL stint.

He worked seven shutout frames in his March 30 start at Petco Park, settling for a no-decision after leaving with a 1-0 lead and seeing his bullpen cough that up in a 3-1 Padres win. That was his first assignment in San Diego and only the second Ryu had faced the Pads, beating them in Los Angeles last August in the other (6.1 IP, 1 ER).

Stults is 0-4 this month with a big fat 8.35 ERA, putting the 34-year-old on the precipice of being the second 10-game loser in the majors. He missed his former team when they met the first time on the 2014 schedule, and owns a 4.30 career ERA in five starts against LA since joining the Padres in 2012.

Umpire Notes, Final Thoughts & A Free Pick
Alfonso Marquez got a late start to 2014 due to an injury, but the 16-year veteran umpire has already made some good money for 'under' bettors with each of his first four games under the mask falling short of the mark. The Padres won both of his plate assignments in San Diego last year, the totals splitting.

The only weather issue to be concerned with in Game 3 is the 8-10 mph SW breeze (out to center), and that's not really enough to help fly balls headed to right in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. An even bigger issue to consider is whether or not LA closer Kenley Jansen will be available today after working each of the first two games of the series. Dodgers Manager Don Mattingly has not used Jansen three consecutive days this season, and primary setup arm Chris Perez has been anything but a sure thing lately with only five scoreless appearances his last 11 outings.

I'm still going to get behind the Dodgers this time due to Ryu's recent run. Let's travel the chalk line for our free MLB pick on Sunday.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -140

Season: 68-69 (-0.75)


21st June
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 2

By: Willie Bee


The Los Angeles Dodgers missed a golden opportunity on Friday to inch even closer to the tumbling San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  Up by four in San Diego, LA pitchers couldn't hold the lead and eventually allowed the Padres to walk off with a 6-5 victory in the series opener at Petco Park.

Don Mattingly and the Dodgers now turn to Josh Beckett to level up the weekend set, and the MLB odds are leaning slightly in Los Angeles' favor with a moneyline in the -110 to -115 range.  San Diego's Tyson Ross will deliver the game's first pitch at 10:10 PM (ET), and the same 6.5 run total we had in Game 1 is back on the board for Game 2.

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Ross Seeking 1st Win Of June
Beckett is experiencing a nice revival after a couple of rough campaigns in 2012-13 when his ERA was above 5.00 each season.  The big Texan will bring a string of 15 scoreless road innings into this start, and owns a 2.27 ERA in five assignments away from LA with the Dodgers 3-2 in those contests.

This will be just his third start against the Padres since coming over from Boston in 2012, the previous two both going into the LA loss column.  San Diego's roster doesn't have a lot of experience vs. Beckett, with Will Venable the only batter to take him deep.

Ross was a tough nut to crack through May, but a couple of rough June outings have changed that a bit.  The Padres have lost all three of his starts this month, and stand 7-8 behind the former Cal Bear this season, though to be fair, his offense has been blanked in three of those defeats.  San Diego managed just one unearned run for him April 2 when Ross took the loss in a 5-1 matchup vs. Los Angeles, the righty allowing four runs (3 earned) in his five innings of work.

Umpire Notes, Final Thoughts & A Free Pick
Ted Barrett dons the mask for the 15th time this season to call balls and strikes in Game 2.  The 21-year veteran owns an 8-5-1 O/U/P record overall, and 6-1-1 mark the last eight.  Barrett worked a May 7 contest in San Diego that topped the total, and followed that up with an 'over' in a Dodgers contest four days later.

Just like the 6.5 run total repeating from Friday to Saturday, the weather forecast is also very similar for the middle game of the set.  First pitch should find the thermometer in the low-70s with a light SW breeze (out to right) accompanying clear skies.

Friday night's 11-run outburst was just the second 'over' in San Diego the last eight games played on this diamond.  Both pitchers tonight are sporting good 'under' runs, Ross 1-6 O/U and Beckett 1-4, but I'm disregarding all of that with a free pick on the 'over'.

MLB Pick: Dodgers-Padres Over 6.5 (-110)

Season: 68-67 (+1.25)


20th June
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 1

By: Willie Bee


Just a week ago, the NL West looked to be the San Francisco Giants' to lose. And maybe that's just what the Giants are going to do as they drag a 5-game losing streak into the weekend.

San Francisco's stumble has helped open the door for the Los Angeles Dodgers who are finally playing like a team with a $235 million payroll should, and they'll look to continue a fine recent run in a 3-game series against the San Diego Padres this weekend. Game 1 of the set is Friday evening (10:10 ET) when Ian Kennedy toes the rubber for the Pads opposite LA's Dan Haren.

The Dodgers opened as slight favorites, but those MLB odds have swung more in San Diego's favor while some shops are sitting on a pick 'em after overnight wagering. Scoreboard bettors are looking at a 6.5 run total.

This weekend is the second of six series clashes between the Left Coast foes, and second of three in San Diego. The Padres opened 2014 hosting the Dodgers who took two of three to improve their record to 48-46 at Petco Park since it opened in 2004.  That entire series stayed below the total, extending the streak of 'under' winners in San Diego to eight games. Including the series in LA last August, totals have run 10-1 to the low side in the last 11 meetings.

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Off Kershaw's No-No, Dodgers Begin 6-Game Trip
Los Angeles (40-34, -5.3 units, 37-33-4 O/U/P) should be riding high to begin this 6-game road trip following a 5-1 homestand that finished with a sweep of the Colorado Rockies. Clayton Kershaw helped the Dodgers complete the broom job with his first career no-hitter on Wednesday night, adding a career-high 15 strikeouts for good measure.

Don Mattingly's troops have crept right back into the NL West race, sitting four games behind the Giants to begin the weekend.  The road has also been kind to the Dodgers this season with a 22-14 away record overall, 10-6 with four series victories their last five sets away from LA.

Haren struggled a bit in late-May, early-June as the Dodgers dropped four straight games with him on the hill, the righthander pitching to a 4.88 ERA in that span. But he has come back with two consecutive victories, first in Cincinnati and then home against the Diamondbacks, giving Los Angeles an 8-6 mark in his assignments.

The former Pepperdine standout made his Dodger debut in San Diego on April 2, charged with one unearned run in six innings.  Haren had lost his three previous starts at Petco Park with an ERA just under 9.00.

Pads Start Stand With 2 Wins To Slow Freefall
We knew before the campaign started that San Diego (31-42, -12.7 units, 23-46-4 O/U/P) wasn't going to legitimately contend in the NL West, and the Padres have certainly played down to those expectations this month. Taking two from the Mariners the past couple of days slowed the nosedive, but still give them a woeful 5-12 mark in June.

Kennedy has been around for 13 decisions in 15 starts; unfortunately for him and the Padres, most of those decisions have been losses. San Diego is 6-9 when the former Southern Cal star takes the mound, leaving baseball bettors to absorb nearly five units of red ink. The Cali native faced the Dodgers on April 1, taking the loss in a 3-2 LA decision (5 IP, 3 ER). That was his first start against them in a Padres uniform, and fourth consecutive assignment vs. Los Angeles that resulted in a loss for his team, three of those setbacks while pitching for Arizona in 2013.

There usually isn't much to worry about as far as the weather goes in San Diego, and this weekend should be no different.  Afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 70s are in the forecast, along with mostly sunny skies and light west/southwest winds (out to right, right-center).

I like how the Dodgers are finally playing, and getting them around an even-money price is too tempting for me to pass up with my free MLB pick.

My Pick: Dodgers -105

Season: 67-66 (+1.20)

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