MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Mets Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Tuesday, May 20, 2014 1:37 PM GMT

LA has taken the first two games of this series, after Wednesday night's 4-3 victory. Where should we go for our free MLB pick as the Dodgers shoot for the sweep Thursday night (7:10 pm ET)?



22nd May
Dodgers vs. Mets Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Thursday's Line
In the early betting, LA and Zack Greinke were favored by about -150 over New York and Jon Niese, with a total of 6.5 runs. The Dodgers could also be gotten at around +120 on the run line for a possible Thursday MLB pick.
 

Wednesday Re-Cap
LA only had five hits Wednesday, but three of them were solo homers. Ryu pitched six innings in his first start off the DL, striking out nine.

The Dodgers won as -125 favorites, and the game pushed its total of seven when the Mets scored a run on a ground out in the bottom of the ninth. 
 

Thursday's Starters
Niese (2-3, 2.54), by our strict standards, is five-for-eight on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Last time out he gave up three ER and eight hits in four innings against Washington, and just prior to that he allowed three runs and eight hits in six innings against Philadelphia.

On the season Niese has given up 47 hits in 49 2/3 innings, walked 12 and struck out 38. The Mets are 4-4 in Niese's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'under' 3-2.

Niese started once against Los Angeles last year, allowing a run, three hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings of a 7-2 Mets loss.

Greinke (7-1, 2.03) is six-for-nine on quality starts, and two for his last two. Most recently he held Arizona scoreless through eight innings, and just before that he gave up two runs in seven innings against San Francisco.

For the year, Greinke has allowed 48 hits in 53 1/3 innings, walked 12 and struck out 61. LA is 7-2 in Greinke's starts, with the totals tipping toward the 'overs' 5-4.

This will be Greinke's first start against the Mets since 2012, when he was with Milwaukee.
 

Free MLB Pick for Thursday
The Dodgers own a .285 OBP against left-handed pitching; the Mets own a .292 OBP vs. righties. We'll go with the 'under' 6.5 runs, at the +105 offered at 5Dimes, for our free pick on Thursday's series finale. 

[gameodds]3/286500/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]



21st May
Dodgers vs. Mets Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Wednesday's Line
In the early going LA and Hyun-Jin Ryu were favored by around -125 over New York and rookie Jacob deGrom, with a total of seven runs. The Dodgers were also getting +130 giving the run and a half on the run line.

[gameodds]3/264413/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

 Game 1 Re-Cap
LA won Tuesday 9-4, rapping out 15 hits, icing the victory with three runs off the New York bullpen in the ninth. The Dodgers have now scored 52 runs over their last nine games, which almost six per. 

Los Angeles cashed as a -125 road favorite, and the game topped its total of 7.5 runs when the Mets' Curtis Grandson led off the bottom of the sixth with a solo homer to get New York within 6-2.

Two batters later Lucas Duda popped a two-run shot off Dodgers starter Josh Beckett, and New York was right back in the game at 6-4 – at least until the ninth.


Wednesday's Starters
deGrom (0-1, 1.29), a 25-year-old righty, will be making his second start as a Major Leaguer. In his debut last Thursday against the Yankees the kid was very good, giving up just one run and four hits in seven innings, walking two while whiffing six. Too bad the Mets lost that game 1-0.

deGrom, taken in the ninth round of the 2010 draft, earned his call to the big club by going 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA this spring at Triple-A Las Vegas, allowing 39 hits in 38 1/3 innings, with 10 walks and 29 strikeouts. Overall, in parts of three seasons in the Minors, deGrom went 21-11/3.62, while compiling a K/BB ratio of better than 3/1.

Ryu (3-2, 3.00), who's expected to come off the DL (shoulder) to start Wednesday, is five-for-seven in quality starts this season. Last time out he got nicked by the Rockies for five runs in five innings, but in his three starts previous to that he had allowed just two runs through 20 innings.

For the season Ryu has given up 37 hits in 39 innings, walked 11 and struck out 31. LA is only 3-4 in Ryu's starts, but the totals have titled toward the 'unders' by a 4-2 margin.

Ryu started twice against the Mets last year, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 14 innings; the Dodgers won both those games.


Free Pick for Wednesday
Thanks in good part to some hot bats the Dodgers are 7-2 on the totals over their last nine games. And LA, understandably, might be careful with Ryu his first time back off the DL, which means the bullpen might throw three or four innings. So we're going with the 'over' seven runs, at the +100 offered at 5Dimes, for our free pick on Wednesday's contest.

 

20th May
Dodgers vs. Mets Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Betting Lines
In the early betting LA and Josh Beckett were favored by around -135 for Tuesday's series opener over the Mets and rookie Rafael Montero, with a total of seven runs. The Dodgers could also be gotten at around +130 on the run line.

Bigger-picture, The Greek was listing Los Angeles at -180 to win this series, with New York getting +160 as a home dog.

 
The Situation
New York just lost two of three games at Washington over the weekend, and hasn't won a series in almost a month, going 0-4-1. At 20-23 the Mets are in fourth place in the NL East, four games behind the division-leading Braves.

LA just dropped two of three games at Arizona over the weekend, and has now lost six of its last eight series. At 23-22 the Dodgers sit in third place in the NL West, five games behind the first-place Giants.

This is the first meeting this season between these two teams. Last year LA took five of six games from New York, with the totals going 3-2-1.

 
Tuesday's Starters
Montero, a 23-year-old righty from the DR, will be making his second career ML start Tuesday. In his ML debut last Wednesday he gave up three runs and five hits, including two solo homers, in six innings against the Yankees at Citi Field. He threw 108 pitches that night, 68 for strikes, in what we'd consider a pretty good opening performance, considering the circumstances.

Montero earned his shot at a spot in the Mets rotation by going 4-1 at Triple-A Las Vegas earlier this spring, allowing 30 hits in 41 2/3 innings, walking 18 while striking out 41.

Beckett (1-1, 2.38) may have just picked up his first “personal” victory since September of last year, but he's deserved better. “Officially” he's only three-for-seven on quality starts this season, but two for his last two. Last time out he held Miami to one unearned run through 6 1/3 innings, and just before that he limited San Francisco to one run through 6 2/3 innings. 

For the season Beckett has allowed just 29 hits in 41 2/3 innings, walked 15 and struck out 40. But LA is only 2-5 in Beckett's starts, with the totals going 4-3.

This will be Beckett's first start against the Mets since 2009, when he was with Boston.

 As far as the bullpens in this series are concerned, New York ranks 13th with a 3.60 ERA, but has blown as many save chances as it's converted, eight apiece. Also, Mets relievers have been tagged for 15 homers, sixth-most, and their collective K/BB ratio is less than 2/1 (130/67).

The LA pen, meanwhile, ranks 25th with a 4.38 ERA, and while it's 13/18 on save chances, it's also lost 11 games, given up 15 homers and also owns a K/BB ratio of less than 2/1 (160/83).

The late innings of this series could be interesting.

 
At the Bat
LA ranks 10th in the Majors in both team OBP at .326 and scoring at 4.3 runs per game, and No. 1 in steals with 50. And that OBP jumps to .341 against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers have tallied 43 runs over their last eight games.

 New York ranks 25th in OBP at .303 and 15th in scoring at 4.0 RPG; that OBP drops to .290 against RH pitching. Also, the Mets have been held to 10 runs over their last five games.

 
Dodgers-Mets Betting Trends
LA is 24-19 on the totals this season, although 10-13 on the road.

 New York is 18-17 (with a whole bunch of pushes) on the totals this year, but those totals have tilted toward the 'unders' by a 12-7 margin in games played at Citi Field.

[gameodds]3/264324/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]
Free MLB Pick for Tuesday
The difference in this one should be the Dodgers' bats. And since we like to gamble we'll take LA on the run line, getting +135 at YouWager, for our free MLB pick on Tuesday's contest.