MLB Picks: Dodgers Look To Sweep Giants In Low Scoring Affair

San Francisco Giants vs LA Dodgers

Jay Pryce

Friday, September 30, 2016 8:14 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 30, 2016 8:14 PM UTC

The Giants cling to the final wild-card spot in the NL with three left to play against their heated rivals the Dodgers. Check out our best bet for game one of the series here.

Los Angeles Dodgers (91-68) – Rich Hill (12-5, 2.05 ERA)

L.A.’s 4-3 win over the Rockies on Sunday meant a lot. Not only did it clinch the NL West title—the first team to win the division in four consecutive seasons with at least 90 wins each year—but the victory surpassed its 89.5 futures win total with six left to play.  

But the regular season is far from meaningless for the Dodgers as they enter their final regular-season series. In fact, the Dodgers get to play spoiler against their most heated rivals, as San Francisco clings to the final playoff spot in the NL.


Manager Dave Roberts turns to Rich Hill for the first game.  The former Athletics left-hander has dropped his last two outings after tossing 19 scoreless innings to begin his Dodgers career. Still, he sports a 1.53 ERA in 29.1 innings since joining L.A.

Hill is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA in seven career starts against the Giants. The current roster hits .288 against with Eduardo Nunez doing the most damage with one home run on 3-of-7 batting.

The Dodgers are just 6-17 as a road dog this season, including a 2-8 mark since June, taking the first pitch at +128 MLB odds on average. Fading the division winners has netted 24 percent profit.


San Francisco Giants (84-75) – Madison Bumgarner (14-9, 2.71 ERA)

Wednesday night’s 2-0 loss to the Rockies squelched any chance of the Giants covering their 88.5 futures win total. They have been in a tailspin since the All-Star break, going 27-42 overall. Only the Twins were worst record during this span (25-46).

Yet San Francisco remains alive for the playoffs, clinching the second wild-card spot by one game over the Cardinals. A series win over the Dodgers will likely earn it a postseason appearance, and a sweep would guarantee it.


Ace Madison Bumgarner hopes to get the final home stand off on a positive note. The former World Series MVP has failed to earn a win in his last four starts, going 0-1 and gifting 12 earned runs on 18 hits in 25.2 frames.

“Mad Bum” is 13-9 with a 2.66 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) all-time against the Dodgers. He holds the current roster to a .227 batting average and low .650 OPS.The Giants are 4-2 behind Bumgarner when home chalk, losing each of the shortest price outings at -110 and -120 odds.


Since 2015, San Francisco is 13-4 at AT&T Park when hosting the Dodgers. The average score is 3.9 to 2.6 with 10 games decide by one run. The under is 12-5.

The Giants are 10-4 as home favorites against southpaws this season but have dropped their last two.


Final Analysis

Bumgarner has yielded more than 2 runs through the first five innings just once in his last 11 home games. Hill, meanwhile, has given up more than 2 in just one of his last 10 road outings. First half lines are not out yet, but the game total has dropped to 6 runs from a 6.5 opening. We’ll play the under through the F5 as the MLB pick of the night, hoping to find the hook (3.5) at one of the many top-rated online sportsbooks found here.

Free MLB Pick: Under 6 (+105)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
SBR record YTD: 124-88-6 (avg. odds, -104); MLB YTD: 32-21-4 (avg. odds, +103)

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