MLB Picks: Dodgers Still Need to put up Wins so Make Them Your Play vs Giants

Darin Zank

Thursday, October 1, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

The Dodgers finally clinched the NL West with a victory over the Giants Tuesday, but they've still got something to play for. They're also underdogs for Thursday afternoon's series finale in San Fran.

Dodgers-Giants Thursday Odds
As of an early-morning perusal of Thursday's MLB odds the best line we could find on San Francisco with Tim Hudson was the -107 at Heritage, while Los Angeles with lefty Brett Anderson was getting +102 at Pinnacle.


The Situation
San Francisco has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series, including a 5-0 decision Wednesday night. But the only game that really mattered was Los Angeles' 8-0 victory Tuesday, which clinched the NL West title for the Dodgers.

LA went off this season as a 2/5 favorite to win the West, so those who backed the Dodgers at those odds are probably breathing sighs of relief. However, at 88-70 LA also needs to win its last four games to pull off a push of its regular-season wins betting total of 92.

The Dodgers still have something to play for; they need to make up two games on the NL East-champion Mets to claim home-field advantage for next week's NL divisional-round playoff series. And LA can't settle for a tie, because New York owns the head-to-head tie-breaker.

The Giants, meanwhile, at 83-75 actually played OVER their wins total of 82 with Wednesday's victory.

San Francisco leads this season series 11 games to seven, with the UNDERS going 10-7-1.


Thursday's Pitching Match-Up
Hudson (8-8, 4.30), making the final start of his ML career, is 10-for-21 on quality starts this year, two for his last four. Last Saturday he only lasted an inning and a third, giving up three runs – two earned – while walking three against Oakland, but over his three starts previous to that he held foes to just two runs through 16 1/3 innings.

San Francisco is 12-9 in Hudson's starts this year, with the UNDERS going 12-7.

In two starts this year against Los Angeles Hudson has allowed just two runs through 12 2/3 innings; the Giants won both those games.

There's a good chance Hudson will only go a few innings today, as he's dealing with some ailments. Expect San Francisco to turn this game over to its bullpen early.

Anderson (9-9, 3.75) is 13-for-30 on quality starts, and 0 for his last two. Last Saturday he gave up six runs in four innings at Colorado, and just before that he gave up five runs in less than five innings against Arizona. However, over his four starts previous to that Anderson held opponents to six earned runs through 23 1/3 innings.

On the season the Dodgers are 15-15 in Anderson's starts, with the OVERS going 15-14.

In five starts this season against San Francisco Anderson has allowed 14 runs through 26 innings; LA won three of those games, while four of those games played OVER.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The UNDERS are 42-32 in games played at AT&T Park this season, which are averaging 7.5 runs per.


Dodgers-Giants Free Picks
The bottom line on this game is LA still actually has something to play for, San Francisco, not so much. Also, Giants home games are skewing UNDER this season, and we can go along with that. So for our free MLB picks on today's contest we'll take the Dodgers and the UNDER.

MLB Picks: Los Angeles & UNDER 7.5 runs (-110) at Heritage

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