MLB Picks: Dodgers & Diamondbacks to Go 'Over' Despite High Total

Charles Stark

Saturday, September 12, 2015 12:03 AM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 12, 2015 12:03 AM GMT

It seems to me that the oddsmakers are on top of this matchup, setting a pretty high total for a National League game. Still, I'm going to back over the total when the Dodgers visit the Diamondbacks.

MLB Odds
Oddsmakers came out with a total of 8.5 for this game between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Being a National League game and not at Coors Field it seems a bit high but when we break down the matchups I really like for both of these teams to score early and often. You can still get some pretty decent MLB odds at taking over the total at Pinnacle (-105).

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Mike Bolsinger takes the mound for the Dodgers with a 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 84 strikeouts, and a 6-3 record. He is just coming back from injury from late July so this will be his second start since then. In his one start since coming back he pitched in San Diego and pitched well except for two home runs for three earned runs in just five innings. Surprisingly, those were the only two hits he allowed in an 8-4 Dodgers win. I have to come back to the line in regards to him taking the mound today. He already pitched once in Arizona back on June 29th and was stellar allowing zero earned runs over four innings and just three hits. His counterpart today is not that bad so this high total tells me the odds makers believe this second look that the Diamondbacks are getting against him will pay dividends for them offensively.

The Dodgers rank 19th in runs scored per game at 4.12, fifth in OPS at .745, and 19th in batting average hitting .252 as a team. Most of their offensive statistics go down on the road but they have started to come around at the plate while traveling recently. Coming into yesterday's game they have averaged over five runs per game on this recent road trip. Today they get the face a pitcher that consistently gives up runs and I look for the Dodgers to do some damage at the plate.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Rubby De La Rosa takes the mound for Arizona with a 4.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 138 strikeouts, and a 12-7 record. He has been pretty solid in his last 10 starts with only one bad outing, his last home start against the Cardinals where he allowed five earned runs in five innings. Besides that start he has been consistent in allowing runs and is not the type of pitcher that is going to shut out the Dodgers. In his last three starts he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 16 innings. Versus the Dodgers this season he has had a really bad outing, pretty bad outing, and a good outing.  Look for him to give up at least four runs today versus the Dodgers.

Arizona ranks fifth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.44, ninth in OPS at .733, and seventh in batting average hitting .265 as a team. Like most good hitting teams their offensive statistics go up at home and they have been one of the top offenses in the National League all season. They have not swung the bats very well in their last 10 games, but again, with odds makers making a line this high I'm willing to go and back the prospect that they are going to break out today.

This a good matchup where we have two decent pitchers against two solid offenses. For one of your MLB picks today I suggest taking the over because there should be a lot of quality at-bats and quite a few runs today in Arizona.

It always comes back the line, and this game is no different. On statistics alone this line is simply too high, yet oddsmakers have gone ahead and made it at a number that seems just a bit above what it should be. This game has my radar up but for one of my sports picks. I like this spot for both these teams to have some nice production at the plate today, so back the over. 

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at BetOnline

comment here