MLB Picks: Diamondbacks Are A Big Road Dog Today Worth Backing Against The Dodgers

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 31, 2016 5:38 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 31, 2016 5:38 PM UTC

MLB odds makers have come out making Arizona a big underdog  in the final game of this three-game set. Looking at the pitching matchup though could there be some value in backing them?

MLB odds have set Arizona of the +179 underdog while the Dodgers sit at -195. For my MLB pick I'm going to take a shot with the big underdog here and the big plus money and back Arizona like at Pinnacle Sports +179. I think this is really good value on a team that has a realistic shot to win this game despite their recent struggles.


Arizona Diamondbacks
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for Arizona with a 5.51 ERA versus the Dodgers this season in three starts. He is actually faced Los Angeles pretty recently giving up six earned runs off of seven hits in four innings back in mid July at home and then prior to that in mid-June, again at home, giving up three earned runs off of seven hits in six innings. 

That leaves us to his first outing against Los Angeles much earlier in the season where he came into Dodgers Stadium and allowed just one earned run off of six hits in six innings. He definitely has had struggles this season and is hovering well above his career 4.11 ERA and 1.30 whip. All that being said I believe the value still lies on backing him today because he does have the capability to keep the Dodgers at a respectable amount of runs. At the plate, despite Arizona's recent losing ways since the break, they are still a very solid offensive team hitting .264 which ranks ninth in the major leagues, averaging 9.24 hits per game which ranks them third, and an OPS of .752 ranking them 11th. They have knocked around today's starter for the Dodgers a bit earlier this season so I expect them to score today.


Los Angeles Dodgers
Bud Norris, acquired from Atlanta at the beginning of July, comes in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.31 whip. He has seen Arizona twice this year, once with the Braves and once with Los Angeles. He saw just one inning of relief against them pitching for Atlanta but he recently got a start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona and he allowed four earned runs off of eight hits in five innings. That gives me a little bit of a pause as to why he and the Los Angeles Dodgers should be an almost -200 favorite. Sure they should be favored but that's a pretty big number and I am not going to bite. 

Offensively Los Angeles has had a lot of quality at-bats since the All-Star break but their overall numbers are not impressive. Currently they just rank 23rd in OPS and 24th in batting average hitting .245 as a team. As well, although they have hit Corbin decently this season they have had their struggles versus left-handers hitting just .219 for the season which ranks them last in the National League. Across the board their numbers drop versus southpaws but for me this is simply all about the value in a game I think and go either way.

July record: 12-9
Free MLB Pick: Arizona +185 
Best Line Offered: at Bodog

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