MLB Picks: Despite Stellar Pitching, Bet Cubs-Giants to go 'Over'

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 11:14 AM GMT

Arrieta takes the mound for the Cubs, and Matt Cain gets the call for the Giants who has struggled since coming back from injury. In my opinion this betting line is just a little bit too low.

 

MLB odds
Odds makers came out with this game at 6.5 and across the MLB odds board that is still the number. The juice has changed a little bit and right now the higher juice is on over the total. The best odds right now are at Heritage sports book where you get over the 6.5 at still regular odds of -110.

 

Chicago Cubs
Jake Arrieta gets the start for Chicago and comes in with a 2.30 ERA, 0.99 whip, 170 strikeouts, and a 15-6 record. In his last 10 starts he has been absolutely fantastic only having one subpar outing in which he allowed three earned runs over six innings. He is a tough guy to take over the total against but a couple things to the Giants advantage is that they just faced him in Chicago two weeks ago, and he has pitched over 100 pitches in his last four starts, that is a lot of work. He has only done that one other time this season and on his next start he gave up four earned runs in just five innings. I think a good hitting Giants team has a good shot to get more than a few runs against him.

The Cubs rank 15th in runs scored per game at 4.17, 14th and OPS at .714, and 28th in team batting average hitting .243. Like the Giants just facing Arrieta the Cubs just faced Cain a couple weeks ago and knocked him around for five earned runs off of just six hits. I don't expect the Cubs to have that same type of success today, but all their major offensive statistics go up away from Chicago.

 

San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain takes the mound with a 5.66 ERA, 1.53 whip, 35 strikeouts, and a 2-3 record. He is a lot better than those numbers and he always pitches better at home. Still, his struggles cannot be overlooked as he has allowed a home run in seven of his last 10 starts. He is coming off a pretty good outing in St. Louis where he allowed just two earned runs off of six hits. I expect him to pitch a lot better today that he did against the Cubs previously but I also expect Chicago to not get shut out.

The Giants rank 11th in runs scored per game at 4.29, eighth and OPS at .734, and fourth in batting average hitting .269 as a team. So far this season they have hit better on the road than in San Francisco. But this a group of veteran players and this should be a playoff like atmosphere for them, look for them to be focused in to get some revenge against the Cubs who swept them four straight just two weeks ago.

This number is simply just too low and I expect both offenses to have some production at the plate today. The Cubs should have some marginal success against Cain, and I look for the Giants to have a good day at the plate and be focused in against a quality pitcher in Arrieta. 

Although we have two stellar pictures on the mound I'm going to back over the total when the Chicago Cubs visit the San Francisco Giants. For the most part the statistics point to this being a low-scoring affair, but I don't think that's going to be the case. 

MLB Pick: Over 6.5 runs at Heritage