MLB Picks: Despite the Juice Bet Cardinals -155 vs. Reds' Poor Pitching

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 11, 2015 1:01 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 11, 2015 1:01 PM UTC

Our capper breaks down Friday’s Cardinals vs. Reds matchup. Don't miss this in depth betting preview and money line pick to roll into the weeked a winner.

NL Central Series in Cincinnati resumes on Friday
Cincinnati will host St. Louis on Friday in the second of a four game NL Central series. Cincinnati won the opener on Thursday in decisive fashion by blowing out their division rival 11-0. Despite the loss yesterday, St. Louis has gone 8-5 versus Cincinnati this season, and nine of those thirteen meetings have stayed under the total.


Cardinals in a Rut
St. Louis has staggered a bit recently by losing four of the last five, and six of their previous eight games. They’re averaging a paltry 2.4 runs per game, possess a terrible .197 team batting average, and have a horrible -4.5 runs per game differential during its previous seven outings. However, let’s keep it real. St. Louis is 88-52 on the year, 38-28 in road games, 67-35 versus right-handed starting pitchers, and still maintains a 4.5 game lead over second place Pittsburgh in the NL Central standings. John Lackey gets the start tonight, and he’s displayed good form over his previous three outings. During that stretch, Lackey posted a stellar 2.21 ERA. The veteran right-hander has compiled an excellent 0.85 WHIP in three starts against Cincinnati in 2015.


Struggling Lorenzen gets another Turn
Michael Lorenzen will attempt to once again get himself pointed in the right direction. The Reds right-hander has been just awful during his previous seven starts, posting a giant 10.43 ERA in those outings. Since he pitches for a team that’s currently 29.5 games out of first place, he’s been afforded the luxury of not losing his spot in the starting rotation since being recalled from the minors. The Reds are a very disappointing 32-39 at home this season. As a matter of fact, today will be the eighth of a ten game home stand, and they’ve gone a dismal 10-27 this season following four or more consecutive games at home.


Final Analysis
According to current MLB betting odds, the Reds are a +145 money line underdog today. Cincinnati has gone a dismal 25-56 this season as a money line underdog of +125 to +175. I’m going to lean toward the road favorite in this spot for one of my MLB picks on Friday.

MLB Picks: Play St. Louis -156 on the money line at Heritage

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