MLB Picks: Depleted Rotations to Create Value When Cardinals Visit Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 25, 2015 2:20 PM GMT

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 2:20 PM GMT

The St. Louis Cardinals meet the Marlins tonight at Marlins Park. Our MLB pick today is a hidden gem underdog supported by injury updates.

St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) vs. Miami Marlins (Haren) 7:10 ET
St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins conclude their 3-game set at Marlins Park with this 7:10 ET scheduled start. Following a 4-3 comeback victory Tuesday night, St. Louis was clearly in control of Game 2 in the Garcia vs. Latos matchup.  Those victories have given the Cards an even greater stranglehold on the best record in MLB with a 47-24 mark.  That is 7 games better than the Pirates in the National League and 5 games better than the Royals in the American League.  At the other end of the spectrum is this Miami team, whose 30-43 record is better than only Philly and Milwaukee in all of MLB.  That makes this a notably contrary selection, based on today’s pitching matchup.

St. Louis has battled through injuries and distractions remaining focused for what seems to be a nightly victory.  They have actually won 20 of 28 of their recent games.  They have thrived even without tonight’s starter, Lynn, who since June 12th, has been on the DL with a right forearm strain that has bothered him throughout the season.  Despite the injury, which has been troublesome for Lynn the entire season, St. Louis has still won 7 of his 12 starts, as he has recorded a 3.07 ERA.  But, Lynn has pitched better at home than on the road, where St. Louis has won just 2 of his 6 starts and Lynn has a 1.43 WHIP. He will certainly not be overly confident against the Marlins team vs. whom he has gone 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA.  After winning the first 2 games of the series, and holding a dominant edge on all opposition, this may actually be a game where the Cards show less than 100% intensity. 

Miami has battled through injuries in their rotation in their own right.  Their ace, Jose Fernandez, has not made an appearance all season.  No. 2 starter, Alvarez, is done for the season after going 0-4.  Cosart, who has spent lengthy time on the DL, is not scheduled to return to later this week.  That has left this season’s acquisition of Dan Haren to step up as their ace starter.  Haren has been remarkably consistent with the Marlins winning 8 of his 14 starts in which he has posted a 6-4 record, 3.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  What is even more impressive is the outstanding numbers posted by Haren when pitching from this mound.  In 7 home starts by Haren, the Marlins are 5-2.  In those outings, Haren has a 0.98 home WHIP.  That is a major BUY sign for any home starter, but particularly so when cast in the role of home underdog.

We are aware that the streaky Marlins are on a 1-6 slide, in which they have totaled just 16 runs.  Nonetheless, some good vibes remain at Marlins Park, where they are 9-4 of late.  Sending their best home starter to the mound against a St. Louis starter coming off the DL is a solid advantage.  And, you know Miami will give 100% to avoid being swept at home, so back them with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take Miami Marlins at BetOnline

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