MLB Picks: deGrom & Mets a Lock vs. Diamondbacks on the Road?

Steven Suarez

Sunday, June 7, 2015 3:20 PM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 7, 2015 3:20 PM GMT

The MLB odds favored Mets have the clear advantage in the pitching matchup tonight with Jacob deGrom taking the bump. Does that make New York the automatic play with our top MLB picks today?

Baseball Betting Odds Overview
Jacob deGrom has been terrific for the Mets this season, so even though that New York offense hasn't been producing much of anything, they'll still find themselves favored at right around -120 in MLB odds to secure victory this afternoon.

If you think the Diamondbacks are the better play, they're available for backing at a nice +110 price, though it's obviously a risky proposition with the way Josh Collmenter's been pitching. The total has been priced out at an even eight runs, and we don't anticipate those lines changing at 5 Dimes anytime soon.

A Capper Riding a 6-Game Win Streak Shares Picks for Mets vs. D'backs

Arizona Diamondbacks (Collmenter)
The Diamondbacks took a 2-1 series lead after escaping with a 2-1 victory last night. They fell to Matt Harvey in the opener but have responded nicely to get back on track and improve to 27-28 overall on the season.

Solid pitching has been the name of the game on their way to those wins, but it's hard to see that continuing with Collmenter now taking the bump. He's been downright awful this season, going 3-5 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, and he hasn't picked up a winning decision since the first week of May. Collmenter has been laboring through each of his starts lately, having not logged more than six innings over a five-start span.

We've seen Collmenter be successful in the past, but the wheels have come off this season, and his SIERA suggests that he hasn't just been getting unlucky. This is a guy we've been fading throughout the 2015 season, and we're most likely going to do it again this afternoon. Collmenter needs to figure it out if the Diamondbacks want to end up on the winning side today.

 

New York Mets (deGrom)
Harvey's victory aside, the Mets haven't been playing all that well, as they've lost four of five games to drop to 30-28 overall. Their offense has gone extremely quiet after the opening victory in this series, and they'll be hoping they can turn it around against the hittable Collmenter.

New York will be feeling quite confident in its chances of closing out the series as they opened it, considering how well deGrom has been performing. He's allowed a grand total of two earned runs over his last 23 and 1/3 innings of work, while posting an out-of-this-world 28:0 K:BB ratio during that span. That's just absurd. deGrom now sports a 71:13 K:BB ratio over 71 total innings this season, to go with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Pretty good numbers, right? deGrom hasn't needed much run support with how dominant he's been, which is a good given how much this New York offense has struggled at times. The Mets rank 25th in total runs this season, while finding themselves near the bottom in the other major statistical categories too.

 

MLB Pick
This one seems quite simple to us, and we're actually surprised the lines aren't higher when it comes to the Mets being favored.

deGrom has been exceptional this season, and the 26-year-old only seems to be getting more and more comfortable as the season wears on. He's been close to unhittable over his last three starts, and while this matchup isn't easy in a hitter-friendly environment, deGrom has the stuff to overpower a Diamondbacks team that hasn't been very scary outside of Goldschmidt and Pollock.

Yes, New York doesn't exactly have a ton of imposing hitters either, but that may not matter with the way Collmenter's been pitching. We think the Mets will be able to rough up the right-hander just enough to give deGrom the necessary cushion. Place your MLB picks on New York at this extremely friendly price.

MLB Pick: New York Mets -120 at YouWager

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