MLB Picks: De La Rosa Equals Good Value On Rockies vs. Giants Game

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 14, 2016 12:05 PM GMT

MLB Odds makers have made a surprising small favorite in a game, that on paper, the Giants should win. Can Colorado pull off the upset during the end of this three-game series?

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants with an MLB Record of 2-3
Odds makers have made Colorado a +110 underdog at books like Bookmaker. For one of my MLB picks I will back Colorado on the plus money line. Starter Jorge De La Rosa has good numbers in Colorado career and I expect him to pitch well today.

 

Colorado Rockies
Colorado comes into this game averaging just over five runs per game, which ranks ninth in the major leagues and start Jorge De La Rosa, who comes in with a career 4.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. With these numbers alone you would think San Francisco would be a much stronger favorite tonight but in his career, De La Rosa has pitched better than most in his home park. He's had a rough start to the year but in his last three seasons he has a 3.59 ERA with batters hitting under .260 against him in hitter friendly Coors field.

Last season, De La Rosa allowed just three earned runs in 12 innings at home versus the Giants, so don't be shocked if he comes in and pitches a good game today. At the plate, Colorado has been knocking the ball around quite well, of course with the big headline being about shortstop Trevor Story. On the season they rank 10th in the major leagues in hits per game, third in strikeouts, and  first in total bases. This team knows how to hit at their home park and I expect they will be able to put up more than a few runs today.

 

San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain gets the start for the San Francisco Giants and comes in with a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP along with the team ranking second and fourth in the major leagues in total bases and runs per game respectively. This a really good San Francisco team that has a lot of good quality at-bats per game. Right now they rank first in major league baseball in strikeouts per game and are hitting .278 as a team which ranks ninth.

They have not had much success recently against De La Rosa in Colorado so I think that puts some value on backing the Rockies. Cain pitched very well in his one outing last season versus Colorado where he allowed just two hits in five innings but that was in San Francisco. In the year prior in Colorado he had a short appearance allowing zero hits in three innings but prior to that game he got lit up allowing seven earned runs off a 10 hits in six innings. This is such a hitter friendly park that nopitcher is really safe coming into throw in the stadium. De La Rosa has had many appearances and understands how to pitch in Colorado, probably better than anyone. I believe this adds value to the MLB odds on the Rockies.

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Free MLB Pick: Colorado +103
Best Line Offered: at Heritage