MLB Picks: Daily Pitching Report 7/11

Ross Benjamin

Friday, July 11, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 11, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping specialist Ross Benjamin looks at a couple of starting pitching matchups for Friday. Read what he has to say about who holds the edge, and apply that information to your MLB betting for today.

Miami Marlins (Alvarez) vs. New York Mets (Wheeler) 7:10 PM ET
The Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez may be the best kept secret in baseball up to this point of the season. He’s been absolutely on fire of late going a perfect 9-0 against the money line in his last 9-starts, with an excellent 1.04 ERA, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. For the season the right-hander has gone 13-5 versus the money line, including 13-2 over the last 15, and has a brilliant 2.27 ERA in those 18 overall starts. He’s made bettors 9.05 units this season based on wagering to win 1.0 unit as a favorite, and betting 1.0 unit as a money line underdog. Putting that into perspective $100 bettors have made $905, and $1000 bettors have profited $9050 by wagering on the Marlins in each game that Alvarez was their starter this season. He’s gone 4-1 against the money line in his last 5-starts versus the Mets, and none of those outings went over the total. In 3-starts versus the Mets this season he’s posted a super 0.84 ERA.

The Mets starter Zack Wheeler has displayed a bit of erratic form over his last 3-starts posting a lofty 4.91 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in those outings. On a positive note, the Mets right-hander has been dominant in 3-starts versus Miami this season as evidenced by a microscopic 0.43 ERA in those outings.
Advantage: Considering the current money line in this game, I give a huge advantage to Henderson Alvarez over Zack Wheeler, and recommend you take the Marlins as your MLB pick for today

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Detroit Tigers (Sanchez) vs. Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:10 PM ET
The Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez is coming off his worst start of the season last Saturday at home versus Tampa Bay. In that outing the right-hander allowed 7 earned runs, 6-hits, and walked 4 in 5 2/3 innings of work. However, the Tigers hurler has been impressive this season in 15-starts while compiling a stellar 3.18 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He’s only given up just 3 home runs in 87 2/3 innings pitched this season, and that translates to an incredible 1 home run allowed per 29.2 innings. He’s started one game versus the Royals this season on 6/19 and was solid in allowing just 1 earned run and 5-hits in 7.0 innings during a 2-1 Tigers win. Sanchez has seen 5 of his last 6-starts versus the Royals stay under the total.

The Royals counter with 25-year old Daniel Duffy who was a bit shaky in his last start this past Sunday at Cleveland. In that outing the young southpaw allowed 4 earned runs, 10-hits, and surrendered 2 home runs in 6.0 innings. Despite that bump in the road Duffy has seen his last 4-starts all go under the total, and he’s displayed very good overall form by posting a 2.92 ERA during those outings. Duffy has gone 1-4 versus the money line in his last 5-starts versus the Tigers, and 4 of the 5 stayed under the total. Duffy has 2-starts versus the Tigers this season and posted a 3.00 ERA in addition to a very good 0.91 WHIP.
Advantage: Anibal Sanchez has pitched much better on the road than at home, as well as at night compared to during the day this season. Although Duffy is looking like he may be coming into his own this season, I’m giving the edge to Sanchez in this one, and recommend you side with the Tigers in today's betting picks.

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