MLB Picks: Daily MLB Total Plays Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The LT Profits Sports Group continue their Daily MLB Total Plays series where they take a look at several totals each day where the numbers posted by the sportsbooks simply do not add up.

We had our second straight 0-2 night on Saturday, and for the second straight night we were not even close on our dreadful ‘under’ calls on the Padres vs. Rays and the Rangers vs. Astros. Then again we almost never do well when ‘over’ does well and it went 9-6 across all MLB games on Saturday, bringing the ‘over’ to 280-238, 54.1 percent (omitting ‘pushes’) for the season.

That is totally anomalous to past seasons when there were more ‘unders’ than ‘overs’ almost every year in MLB, and the sportsbooks cannot be happy with the flood of ‘overs’ this season because they are usually the pubic plays. We do not anticipate the books allowing that to continue so look for a turnaround vey soon. We have two more ‘unders’ for Sunday.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (1:35 ET) – TBS national

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

These two teams have gone ‘under’ in each of the first two games of this series with the Red Sox taking the series opener from Fenway Park 5-0 Friday and the Blue Jays winning 3-2 Saturday. That is not totally shocking when you consider that neither team is hitting the ball particularly well over the past 10 games, with the Red Sox averaging only 3.20 runs per game in that span and the Blue Jays averaging 3.70 runs.

The Red Sox have gotten good performances from their starting pitchers for most of the season though as the starters have a cumulative 3.49 ERA. That includes Sunday starter Ryan Dempster, a key acquisition by Boston that deserves much better than a 2-3 record. Dempster must feel like he is back with the Chicago Cubs, where he almost always pitched well but was often plagued by a lack of run support.

Well, it has been the same old song for Dempster so far as he has a sparkling 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with a terrific 55 strikeouts in 43 innings against only 18 walks, and he has six Quality Starts in his seven outings. That includes a fine outing vs. there Blue Jays in Toronto where he allowed only one run and four hits in six innings, and lo and behold he actually got the win as the Red Sox gave him just enough support for a 3-1 victory.

The Blue Jays were actually favored to win the American League East before this season began but they are instead in last place, already 9½ games behind the division leading New York Yankees. They have not hit for most of the year, ranking 24th in the Major Leagues with a .234 batting average while averaging 3.74 runs per game overall, and the supposedly fine pitching has been disappointing, at least until yesterday when Mark Buehrle looked awesome.

After getting seven innings from Buehrle Saturday where he was charged with just one run and five hits with no walks, Toronto have recalled Chad Jennings from the minors to take this start this afternoon. Jenkins missed the first month of the minor league season with a shoulder injury but he looked fine in his only start, allowing only three hits in five innings, and he has some Major League experience as he appeared in 13 games including three starts in 2012.

Jennings was actually quite serviceable in those three big league starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of them, and he could be auditioning for a rotation spot here with Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ on the Disabled List and Brandon Morrow out with a stiff neck.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays, Red Sox ‘under’ 9 (-102)


Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (4:10 ET)

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -111.

The Mariners have one of the weakest hitting teams in the Major Leagues as usual while the Athletics have three outfielders on the Disabled List in Josh Reddick, Chris Young and Coco Crisp, so runs could be hard to come by at Safeco Field on Sunday afternoon. The teams have split the first two games of this series as the Athletics belted three home runs in a 4-3 win last night. Safeco is a pitcher’s ballpark though, so don’t expect another power surge today.

Southpaw Tom Milone gets the start for Oakland, and few pitchers in baseball have been as unlucky as he has been lately. You see, Milone won his first three starts this season, but he is 0-4 in his last four starts despite posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in those starts with 26 strikeouts vs. two walks in 27.1 innings and not allowing an earned run in two of those outings!

Milone has done well in his six career starts vs. the Mariners, all of which came since the beginning of last season, going 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA and an impressive 36 strikeouts against four walks in 37.2 innings against them. That includes one start vs. Seattle this season where Milone got the win while allowing two runs on only four hits in seven innings.

Then again, most pitchers have had success this year vs. a Seattle lineup that is 25th in the majors with a .235 team batting average while averaging a scant 3.49 runs per game overall, and games here at Safeco Field have averaged a combined 7.42 runs per game this season.

Mariners’ southpaw starter Joe Sunders has some ugly overall numbers at 2-4 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, but while he has been atrocious on the road, he has certainly shown that he knows how to take advantage of the dimensions of this ballpark as he is 2-0 with an outstanding 0.81 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his three home starts!

He is also catching the A’s at the perfect time because for their depleted offense, as Oakland is batting a dismal .213 as a team over the last 10 game while averaging a mere 2.80 runs in those contests. Do not expect improvement today given Saunders’ home form.

MLB Pick: Athletics, Mariners ‘under’ 8 (-111)


Record: 10-13, -4.16

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