MLB Picks: Daily MLB Total Plays Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The LT Profits Sports Group continue their Daily MLB Total Plays series where they take a look at several totals each day where the numbers posted by the sportsbooks simply do not add up.

We had a nice 1-0-1 day on Saturday, although we once again had an ‘under’ go into extra innings, settling for the ‘push’ when the Orioles beat the Angels 5-4. We cashed our other ‘under’ easily with the Rangers beating the Red Sox 5-1.

We again have two totals for Sunday, and as fate would have it they are on the exact same team matchups as yesterday.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (3:05 ET)

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

The Rangers and the Red Sox have now gone ‘under’ in each of the first two games of this series to bring the ‘under’ to 19-9-2 in all Texas games this season, as the Rangers lead the Major Leagues with a 3.02 staff ERA. That has helped propel the Rangers to first place in the American League West, 2½ games ahead of the Oakland Athletics.

Today’s starter Yu Darvish is now only the ace of the Texas staff, but he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and is an early leading candidate for the Cy Young Award. Darvish is 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an incredible 58 strikeouts in 38.2 innings against only 13 walks! He had nine more strikeouts vs. the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, falling one punch-out shy of his third straight double-digit strikeout performance.

He is facing a Boston offense that has been unable to get anything going in the first two games of this series vs. Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando, producing a grand total of one run and 13 hits over the two games, with the Texas bullpen assisting by allowing only one hit over four scoreless innings.

The Red Sox do still lead the American League East however, holding a 1½-game lead over the New York Yankees. Boston had also been getting fine pitching before this series, and their starting pitchers still have a nice collective 3.35 ERA.

Southpaw Jon Lester was a major disappointment last season, as were the Red Sox as a whole in their only year under Bobby Valentine, but Lester has bounced back strong in 2013 going 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 37.2 innings, with Boston as a team going 5-1 in the games that he has started.

Lester has also done a good job in his three career starts at Rangers Ballpark vs. some very potent lineups, posting a 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while limiting Texas batters to a .236 batting average, with 16 strikeouts against only four walks in 19.1 innings.

MLB Pick: Red Sox, Rangers ‘under’ 8 (-120)


Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 ET)

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -112.

The Orioles conclude a four-game series with the Angels as well as playing their 11th game in 11 days on a grueling west coast road trip Sunday, and they are guaranteed a winning trip after going 6-4 so far including taking two of the first three games of this series. Baltimore is off to an 18-13 start and sits just 2½ games behind the Red Sox in the American League East as the Orioles seem determined to prove that last year’s surprising playoff run was not a fluke.

One of the surprises of the pitching staff last year was Jason Hammel, and he too backed that up with a good April this season as he is 4-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and he has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts. He has allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings, and Hammel posted a Quality Start the last time he pitched here in Anaheim last July, allowing three runs on only six his in 6.2 innings.

Furthermore, the Angels were hitting the ball a lot better then than they are now, as they are averaging just 3.70 runs per game in their last 10 contests while hitting a meager .212 as a team during that time. Also, the biggest free agent catch of the off-season Josh Hamilton is currently batting .207 on the year with just two home runs and nine RBI.

The Angels have had high hopes each of the last two seasons with an enormous payroll, but so far they seem destined for a second straight disappointing year as they are just 11-19 and in fourth place in the American League West, already eight games behind the division leading Rangers.

Los Angeles is dipping into the bullpen today to start Jerome Williams, who has had plenty of Major League starting experience in the past with rather mixed results. Williams earned this opportunity though with excellent work out of the pen, as he has a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 21.1 innings. He went six innings in his latest outing during a 19-inning marathon vs. the Oakland A’s Monday, allowing just an unearned run and four hits.

Williams is also a perfect three for three in Quality Starts vs. Baltimore in his career with the most recent one coming last season, when he limited the Orioles to three runs on seven hits with six strikeouts and only one walk in 6.2 innings of a 6-3 Angel win.

MLB Pick: Orioles, Angels ‘under’ 8½ (-112)


Record: 3-3, -0.14

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