MLB Picks: Daily Baseball Value Plays

Steven Suarez

Monday, April 8, 2013 11:51 AM GMT

Inside you'll find two MLB picks that we feel quite confident in. Let's see if we can beat the books with our plays.

Cincinnati Reds (Latos) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Garcia)

The Cardinals will finally make their home debut today, and we like the short price that sportsbooks are offering on them to win against the Reds.

Cincinnati has gotten off to a quick 4-2 start, but St. Louis has picked up momentum after winning the last two games of the series against San Francisco. The Cardinals won 6-3 on Saturday and then crushed Matt Cain and the Giants in a 14-3 win yesterday.

Today Jaime Garcia will try to make it two wins out of two when he takes the mount for his second start of the season. 

Garcia looked good in his first appearance, holding Arizona to two hits and one run in a 6-1 win for St. Louis. He had four walks and four strikeouts in 5 and 2/3 innings of work. 

The left-hander really turned on the style after the All-Star break in 2012 and was especially good at Busch Stadium. For the year he went 4-2 with a 2.82 ERA in nine starts at home. 

The Reds will turn to Mat Latos, who picked up a no-decision (6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) in his first start which came against the Los Angeles Angels. Latos was excellent in 2012, but the one team he struggled the most against was St. Louis, as he went 1-2 with a 7.84 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals.

St. Louis has one of the best crowds you'll find in the bigs, and Busch will be rocking even louder since it's Opening Day. If Garcia can avoid trouble early on, we really think the Cardinals will be able to notch the W. 

MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -107 at 5Dimes

[gameodds]3/224271/43/us[/gameodds]

Colorado Rockies (De La Rosa) vs. San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) 

Though the Rockies have been one of the biggest surprise packages so far this season, we are going against them with our MLB picks for tonight's series opener with San Francisco tonight.

Currently, the MLB odds have the Giants favored in the -160 area, while the total can be found at an even seven runs at practically every sportsbook. 

We primarily like a play on San Francisco because of the pitching (mis)match. Madison Bumgarner will go up against Jorge De La Rosa, with the advantage obviously in the Giants' court. 

Bumgarner was absolutely amazing in his season debut, throwing eight innings of scoreless ball in a 3-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. He allowed only two hits and struck out six without walking a batter. 

The young southpaw's performances at AT&T Park in 2012 also give us reason for optimism. He went 10-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 15 outings at home and also managed to throw two complete games. Bumgarner allowed just five homers overall in those starts and held opposing lineups to a batting average of .219.

The Rockies, meanwhile, will simply be hoping De La Rosa can avoid getting shellacked. The Colorado offense bailed him out in his season debut (4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K), but there's a good chance that won't happen again tonight.

San Francisco couldn't have been pleased with dropping two of three at home to St. Louis and we look for them to jump on De La Rosa early. From there, Bumgarner should do enough to guide the Giants to the win.

MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+140) at BookMaker

[gameodds]3/224277/43/us[/gameodds]