MLB Picks: Cueto & KC Offer Best Value World Series Odds in Game 2

Darin Zank

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 3:07 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 3:07 PM UTC

The Royals and Mets began the World Series in big form, going 14 innings before Kansas City got the game-winning run. This capper hit with his free MLB pick last night; can he make it two in a row?

World Series Game 2 Odds
As of this writing early Wednesday morning, the MLB odds on Game 2 fluctuated rather wildly from book to book. We found New York with Jake deGrom getting +102 at Bovada, while Kansas City with Johnny Cueto was getting +113 at Heritage. Tuesday's Game 1 went off at right around a pick 'em across the World Series betting market, and we won't be surprised if the line on Game 2 settles around there, too.


World Series Game 2 Set-Up
Kansas City grabbed Game 1 of this best-of-seven affair Tuesday night 5-4 in 14 innings. The Royals led 1-0 on an Alcides Escobar inside-the-park home run leading off the bottom of the first, trailed 3-1 into the bottom of the sixth, tied the game with a pair of manufactured runs, trailed 4-3 into the bottom of the ninth, tied it on an Alex Gordon solo homer, then finally won it when Eric Hosmer, who committed a brutal error that allowed New York to take a one-run lead in the top of the eighth, lofted a sacrifice fly to center field with the bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the 14th inning.

This handicapper got a little lucky with our free Game 1 MLB pick on Kansas City, thanks to Gordon, but one reason we went that way was the edge we gave the Royals in the comparison of the bullpens. Last night the KC pen allowed one unearned run through eight innings of work, with two walks and 12 strikeouts, while the Mets pen allowed two runs – one earned – through 7 1/3 innings.


Game 2 Pitching Match-Up
Cueto (11-13, 3.44), by our tough accounting, went 18-for-32 on quality starts during the regular season, but only five-for-13 after coming over to Kansas City in that trade with Cincinnati back in July. He's one-for-three on QS in these playoffs. Cueto started twice against Houston in the ALDS, giving up six runs and nine hits through 14 innings; the Royals won both those games. He then started Game 3 of the ALCS against Toronto and got bombed for eight runs in two-plus innings of an 11-8 KC defeat. On the whole Kansas City is only 6-10 in games Cueto has started. Cueto started once against New York earlier this season while still with the Reds, back in June, allowing just two runs and two hits through six innings, although Cincy lost that game 2-1. 

deGrom (14-8, 2.54) went 22-for-30 on quality starts this year, and is three-for-three in these playoffs. He started twice against Los Angeles in the NLDS and won twice, holding the Dodgers to just two runs and 11 hits through 13 innings, walking four while whiffing 20. He then started Game 3 of the NLCS against Chicago and held the Cubs to two solo home runs through seven frames, walking one while striking out seven, in a 5-2 Mets win. So New York has won his last five starts. On the season, the Mets are 23-10 in deGrom's starts. This will be deGrom's first-ever start against Kansas City.

Must Read: World Series Price Betting Odds Analysis

Game 2 Batting Splits
New York ranked 21st in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .312 team on-base percentage, and 20th with a .397 team slugging percentage. Also, in 11 games this season played in American League ballparks the Mets have now scored a total of 38 runs.

New York batted three players in the designated hitter spot Tuesday night; unfortunately for them, Kelly Johnson, Mike Cuddyer, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis combined to go 0-for-5 at the plate with three strikeouts.

Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked 11th against righties with a .321 team OBP and sixth with a .416 team slugging percentage.


World Series Game 2 Free Pick
We played KC in Game 1 because while we thought New York had an edge in the starting pitching match-up, the Royals held edges with the sticks and in the bullpen. And we're thinking along the exact same lines for Game 2.

Free MLB Pick: Royals +113 at Heritage

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