MLB Picks: Cubs vs. Reds Series Betting Blog

Darin Zank

Monday, September 9, 2013 2:20 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 9, 2013 2:20 PM GMT

This week Cincy gets a chance to make up ground in its divisional race when it hosts the last-place Chicago Cubs for three games at the Great American Ball Park. Let's look at Game 3's betting lines.

 

11th SEPT
Wednesday's Game Three

By: Ron Patrick

 

Chicago, much to our surprise, has taken the first two games of this series, following Tuesday's 9-1 romp. The Cubbies banged out 13 hits Tuesday, seven for extra bases, in winning as +225 underdogs on the MLB betting line.

Cincy, which has scored a total of 11 runs over its last five games, now trails first-place St. Louis by three games in the NL Central.

So, Chicago, which has already won this series as a +240 underdogs, shoots for the sweep when the teams meet in a get-away game Wednesday afternoon (12:35 pm ET).

Wednesday's Betting Line

Most books opened Cincy and Mike Leake at around -170 over Chicago and Jeff Samardzija, with a total of eight. Many shops then bumped the Reds to the -185 range.

Cincinnati could also be gotten at upwards of +120 on the MLB odds run line.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Leake (12-6, 3.46) is 15-for-28 on quality starts this season, but just one for his last five. Most recently he held the Dodgers to two runs through 7 2/3 innings, but over his last five starts he's allowed 21 ER in 29 1/3 innings.

On the season Leake has given up 176 hits in 177 innings, walked 42 and struck out 108. 

Cincy is 16-12 in Leake's starts this year, with the totals also going 16-12.

In three starts already this year against the Cubs Leake has held them to five ER and 20 hits in 20 2/3 innings; the Reds won all three of those games.

Samardzija (8-11, 4.29) is 14-for-29 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last two. Last time out he got nicked for six runs in six innings against Miami, and just before that he gave up five runs in 6 2/3 innings against Philadelphia.

On the season the former Notre Dame wide receiver has allowed 184 hits in 189 innings, walked 69 and struck out 190.

The Cubs are 13-16 in Samardzija's starts this year, with the totals going 17-11.

In four starts previously this season against the Reds Samardzija has allowed 11 ER and 27 hits in 24 innings; Chicago lost three of those four games.

[gameodds]3/243027/?r-1=19-43-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Wednesday's Game

Cincy has dropped the first two games of this series; we don't think they'll get swept. We also figure the Reds bats are about to break loose. So we'll go with a run-line play on Cinch for our free MLB pick for Wednesday.

Pick: Take Cincinnati minus the run and a half at the +125 offered at Bet 365

 

10th SEPT
Tuesday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick

 

Get your baseball picks in early. Read our Daily Baseball Odds & Betting Lines Report

Behind a wonderful outing from starter Travis Wood, Chicago took the opener of this series Monday night, 2-0. The Cubs, to our chagrin, won as +165 underdogs on Monday's MLB betting line, and the game stayed ‘Under’ its total of 7.5.

The Reds went 0-for-10 with RISP Monday night.

With the loss, Cincy dropped to third place in the NL Central, two games back of first-place St. Louis.

Chicago goes for the series victory when the teams meet for Game 2 Tuesday night at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's Betting Odds

Most sports books opened Cincy and Tony Cingrani at around -215 over Chicago and Edwin Jackson, with a total of eight. Most shops then also bumped the Reds to the -235 range in the MLB odds.

 [gameodds]3/242929/?r3=192-349-43-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=192-349-43-19/us[/gameodds]

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Rookie lefty Cingrani (7-3, 2.80) is 7-for-17 on quality starts this year, and only one for his last five. But that's mainly because he's been pitching short of six innings lately. Last time out, in his first start off the DL (sore back), he held St. Louis to two runs through 5 1/3 innings. And over his last four starts he's allowed four ER over 20 1/3 innings.

For the season, Cingrani has given up just 69 hits in 103 innings, walked 42, which is a bit too many, but whiffed 119. The Reds are 11-6 in Cingrani's starts this year.

Cingrani has already started three times this year vs. the Cubs, allowing eight ER and 15 hits in 20 innings. The Reds won two of those three games.

Jackson (7-15, 4.91) is only 9-for-27 on quality starts this year, and two for his last six. Last time out he gave up three runs in five innings against the Marlins, and over his last six starts he's allowed 22 ER through 33 2/3 innings.

During the season, Jackson has given up 170 hits in 156 innings. While he's struck out 121, he's also walked 53.

The Cubs are just 9-18 in Jackson's starts this season.

In his only start this year against Cincy, Jackson gave up four runs and eight hits in five innings of a 7-4 Chicago loss back in May.

Our Take on Tuesday's Game

Cingrani owns the advantage in the pitching match-up, and Reds hitters will be much happier facing Jackson than last night facing Wood. So we like Cincy. But we also don't like that price. So we'll go with the Reds on the run line for our free Tuesday sports picks.

MLB Pick: Take Cincinnati giving the 1.5 runs at the -105 offered at Ladbrokes.

Share your picks for this end-of-the-season series on our Major League Baseball forum!

 

9th SEPT
Monday's Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

Check out Monday's Daily Baseball Odds & Betting Lines Report for a breakdown of today's games!

The Cincinnati Reds sit comfortably in the National League wild-card race, but who the hell wants to play in that do-or-die wild-card game? The Reds loom as the obvious sports betting choice in these three games; but might the Cubbies have an upset or two in them?

Monday's Betting Lines

As of Monday morning, most baseball betting shops were listing Cincinnati and Bronson Arroyo at around -180 over Chicago and Travis Wood, with an ‘Over’/’Under’ of eight. The Reds could also be gotten at around +115 on the run line.

TheGreek.com was chalking Cincy at -300 MLB odds to win this series, with the Cubs getting +240.

[gameodds]3/242854/?r3=43-349-192-19/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Cubs-Reds Series Set-Up

Cincy just swept three games at home from the Dodgers over the weekend, getting a walk-off 3-2 victory Sunday, to bump its record to 6-1 on its current home-stand.

At 82-62 the Reds trail first place-St. Louis by just a game and a half in the NL Central; they're also tied with Pittsburgh for the lead in the NL wild-card race, eight games clear of third-place Washington.

Chicago, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to the Brewers over the weekend, losing Sunday's series rubber match 3-1, to complete a 4-5 home-stand. At 60-82 the Cubs are fighting with Milwaukee, trying to stay out of last place in the NL Central.

As for the head-to-head, Cincy leads this season series 13 games to three, with the totals going 10-6.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Arroyo (13-10, 3.62), by our tough standards, is 16-for-28 on quality starts this season, two for his last three. Last time out he held St. Louis to two ER through seven innings, although that came just after he got nicked for six runs in three-plus innings at Colorado. But out of his last 12 starts he's given up three ER or fewer 10 times.

During the season, Arroyo has allowed 176 hits in 179 innings and walked just 27 while striking out 112.

Cincy is 16-12 in Arroyo's starts this year. This will be Arroyo's third start this season against the Cubbies; so far he's allowed three ER and eight hits in 13 innings, and the Reds won both those games.

Lefty Wood (8-11, 3.17) is an impressive 20-for-28 on quality starts this year, but only one for his last four. Last time out he gave up four runs in seven innings vs. Miami, and over his last four starts he's allowed 12 ER and 32 base-runners in 26 innings.

For the season, Wood has permitted 143 hits in 179 innings, and owns a 125/58 K/BB ratio.

Chicago is just 10-18 in Wood's starts this year, but most of that has to do with a lack of run support. This will be Wood's fifth start against the Reds this season; in the four previous outings he's given up 11 ER and 19 hits in 27 innings; the Cubs managed to lose all four of those games.

In the bullpen match-up for this series Cincy ranks 11th with a 3.44 ERA and is 40-for-54 on save opportunities, while Chicago ranks 26th with a 4.17 ERA and has blown 26 of 61 save opps.

Cubs-Reds With the Sticks

  • Cincy ranks sixth in team OBP at .328, 14th in home runs with 143 and 10th in scoring at 4.4 runs per game.
  • Chicago ranks 28th in team OBP at .303, ninth in homers with 154 but 24th in scoring at 3.9 RPG.

Cubs-Reds Betting Trends

  • Chicago is a near-respectable 31-36 on the road this season.
  • Cincy is 47-25 at home this year.
  • The ‘Over’/’Under’ is 34-34 in games played at GABP this season.

Our Take on Monday's Game 

The match-up of the starting pitchers is about a wash, but the Reds hold advantages just about everywhere else, including in the motivation department. So while we're not big on giving such big prices, we like Cincy for our free Monday MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take the Reds at the -185 money line offered at Bet365

Excited for this series? Share your picks on our Major League Baseball forum!

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