MLB Picks: Cubs the Choice in Two Betting Scenarios on Hump Day

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, May 24, 2017 4:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 24, 2017 4:04 PM UTC

Neither San Francisco nor Chicago could have imagined this is where they be in the standings as Memorial Day approaches. The same goes for those betting baseball, shocked to see these two as money-burners.

The Giants are 20-27, in fourth place in the NL West and down -6.8 units. The World Series champion Cubs are 23-21, in third place in the NL Central and at -7.8 units. This is Game 3 of a four-game set and one team will take the series lead this evening. As per usual, Chicago's MLB odds look inflated, but that is not all their fault.

 Pitching Matchup - Moore vs. Hendricks

Matt Moore (2-4, 5.37 ERA) was great pickup by San Francisco last season, yet to this point he is not doing the job. When Madison Bumgarner went down, the Giants starting staff needed to pick up the slack. They collectively have not and Moore is part of the problem. Moore has been improving after miserable start with a 2.89 ERA in his three prior starts. However, he is still walking too many hitters, as his WHIP of 1.53 shows and he getting crushed by left-handed batters for .375 average, which is peculiar for lefty pitcher. Moore has only faced Chicago once and that was last October when he was brilliant over eight innings before the bullpen blew the game.

Kyle Hendricks (3-2, 3.35) also got off to a slow start in 2017, but is starting to look like the same pitcher as last year. Over his past five starts his ERA is 1.82 and he is back to keeping the ball down and working both sides of the dish. The only negative right now on Hendricks is too many walks and if he fixes that element, he is one tough hombre. Hendricks is 1-2 with 4.43 ERA in four starts versus the Giants.

 Both Offenses are Off Kilter

San Francisco is scoring as pathetic 3.4 runs per game in spite of Buster Posey batting .361 with an OBP of .444. Here where the problem is; take away the seven home runs Posey has and he only has FOUR other runs batted in. Posey bats clean up and the Giants first three hitters are 26th in baseball in OBP. Posey is also to blame, batting .245 with runners on and .425 with the bags empty.

Manager Joe Maddon's team is scoring 5 RPG just like last season, yet something does not feel right. No question the below average starting pitching has put the Cubs in tough spots, nevertheless, you see Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell hitting under .225 and nobody would have guessed Kyle Schwarber would be batting .186 at this point of the season.

 Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

Most sportsbooks opened the Cubs at around -170 favorites and they have been bumped up to -190 by the wagering public, with total of 7.5. Including the playoffs, Chicago has owned San Fran the last three years with a 10-2 record, with the total at 6-4-2 UNDER. The Cubs bullpen in third in the NL in ERA and the Giants are seventh and both have improving save percentages the last couple weeks.

 The Winner Is...

For MLB picks the money line offers no value at -190 on Chicago, but for some reason the run line offers great value on the Cubs at +120. Are the books making this too tempting, really thinking this is a one run outcome? Problem solved, split the bet proportionally, two-thirds ML and one-third RL and cut your risk.

Free MLB Play: Chicago -180Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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