MLB Picks: Cubs RL Bet Creates Plus Money Value Against Brewers

Darin Zank

Monday, September 21, 2015 1:41 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 1:41 PM UTC

The Cubbies own the Brewers as of late, winning each of the last seven meetings in this season series. Here we preview and provide our free MLB pick on Monday's series opener.

Brewers-Cubs Monday MLB Odds
In researching our free MLB pick for this game the best MLB odds we could find on Chicago and Jason Hammel was the -199 at Pinnacle, while Heritage was giving Milwaukee and Wily Peralta +186. Also, 5Dimes was chalking the Cubs at a heavy -370 to win this series, with the Brewers getting +310.


The Situation
Chicago just took two of three games from St. Louis over the weekend, missing the sweep by losing Sunday 4-3. Still, the Cubs are 4-0-1 over their last five series, 12-5 over their last 17 games.

At 87-62 Chicago trails the division-leading Cardinals by six games in the NL Central, but only trails Pittsburgh by two games for the top spot in the NL wild-card race.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Cincinnati, avoiding the sweep and stopping an eight-game losing streak by winning Sunday 8-4. So the Brewers have lost four series in a row, and 10 of their last 12 games.

At 63-86 the Brew Crew has packed it in for this season.

The Cubs lead this season series nine games to four, with the UNDERS going 8-4-1.


Monday's Mound Match-Up
Hammel (8-6, 3.73), by our strict standards, is just nine-for-28 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last four. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs in less than four innings against Pittsburgh, and over his last four starts he's allowed 14 runs through 19 2/3 innings. For the season Hammel has allowed 141 hits through 157 innings, walked 39 and struck out 159.

Chicago is 13-15 in Hammel's starts, with the totals splitting 14-14.

Hammel has already started four times this season against Milwaukee, allowing seven runs through 24 1/3 innings; the Cubs won three of those games, and three of those games played UNDER.

Peralta (5-9, 4.41) is 10-for-19 on quality starts, and basically two for his last three. Last Wednesday he gave up five runs and three home runs in four innings against St. Louis, but over his previous three starts, one of which only went two innings because of rain, he held opponents to three runs through 15 innings. On the season, which for him has been shortened by a two-month stint on the DL, Peralta has allowed 122 hits through 104 innings, while compiling a less-than-impressive K/BB ratio of 58/33.

The Brewers are 9-10 in Peralta's starts, with the OVERS going 11-7.

In his one start against the Cubbies this season, back in May, Peralta held them to one run and eight hits through six innings, although Milwaukee lost that game 1-0.


Monday's Batting Splits
Milwaukee ranks 16th this season in the Majors against right-handed pitching with a .316 team on-base percentage, and 17th with a .403 team slugging percentage.

Chicago ranks 13th against righties with both a .322 team OBP and a .411 team slugging percentage.

Factor in some other power numbers, and injuries, and the Cubbies get the check mark with the sticks for tonight.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Wrigley Field this season are 38-32 on the UNDERS, averaging 8.0 runs per.


Injury Update
Milwaukee was already playing without C Jonathan Lucroy, and now OF Ryan Braun has missed recent action with a bad back. Without those two the Brewers are almost a lost cause.


Brewers-Cubs Free Picks
Chicago is a rather obvious choice here, but the price is a bit steep, so we'll take a chance with the home team on the run line.

MLB Pick: Cubbies +110 (-1½) at 5Dimes

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