Today's starters are two pretty solid but the betting line is just too low in my opinion. Expect the Dodgers to continue hitting well at home and the Cubs to have more quality at-bats today.
MLB odds makers came out with a number on the total at 7 for this matchup with a higher juice on the over. That number really made me think a bit, but my belief is that it is simply too low for this game. The best odds right now on over the total is at -120 at 5dimes.
Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs with a 3.44 ERA, 1.20 whip, 159 strikeouts, and it 8-9 record. In four out of his last five starts he has been really sharp allowing just seven earned runs, but in his other start he allowed that same total in just one game. He is a solid major league pitcher and his numbers actually go down a little bit on the road to a 3.24 ERA and batters just hitting .236 against him. The Dodgers though lead the National League in OPS against left-handers, expect Lester to struggle just a little bit today and for the Dodgers to get more than a few runs.
The Cubs rank 15th in runs scored per game at 4.12, 18th in OPS at .708, and tied for last in team batting average at .241. On the road both their runs per game and batting average goes up and their OPS stays just about the same. This a good spot for them to face a pitcher without the last name of Kershaw so look for the Cubs, who for the most part have been productive on this road trip at the plate, to put more than a couple runs on the board.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mat Latos takes the mound for the Dodgers with a 4.81 ERA, 1.27 whip, 87 strikeouts, and a 4-9 record. So far with the Dodgers he has had three starts, one good one, one bad one, and one subpar. I don't anticipate he is going to shut out Chicago and I also think he'll probably pitch decently well. Still, that number is just too low with both these teams combined and the Cubs should do enough damage against him to help us get over the total.
The Dodgers rank 16th in runs scored per game at 4.11, fourth in OPS at .750, and 14th in team batting average hitting .253 as a team. I will keep this short and sweet when discussing the Dodgers, they are simply a much better hitting team in LA than they are on the road. Ther OPS jumps from .726 on the road to .775 at home, and all their other major offensive statistics move up considerably. As mentioned they hit left-handers really well so expect them to have some nice at-bats today.
I'm a little surprised at this number and usually because my radar is up I would go the other way and take the under on a game like this. But at the end of the day the Cubs should have a lot better of a time today at the plate than yesterday and the Dodgers can flat out rake at home. Although there is little bit higher juice on the over it is the solid MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Over -120 at 5Dimes