MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Joe Catalano

Saturday, May 31, 2014 4:51 PM GMT

Tonight, the underachieving Cincinnati Reds (24-29) get a chance to improve their record as they face an Arizona Diamondbacks (23-34) team which is just 9-20 at home and is starting Brandon McCarthy (1-6, 4.87). First pitch is set for 10:10 pm ET tonight at Chase Field.

Johnny Cueto at Very Appealing Odds
Because he’s received a lack of run support and the Reds have played so poorly, 5 Dimes Sportsbook is offering pitcher Johnny Cueto (4-4, 1.83) and the Reds at -105 betting odds and the total for the game is listed at 7.5 runs.

This is somewhat of a steal as the starting pitching matchup is a total mismatch in Cincy’s favor and Cincinnati is also coming off of a convincing 6-4 victory yesterday in which they scored 4 runs on in the 2nd inning.

If the Reds can squeak out a few runs, it should be good enough and Brandon McCarthy will give them plenty of meatballs to hit.


Devin Mesoraco
While many of the Reds' hitters haven’t been hitting well this season, the same can’t be said for the Reds' catcher Devin Mesoraco. In limited action (93 at-bats), Mesoraco has 8 HR, 25 RBI, and a spectacular .355 batting average.

He’s literally won a few games for Cincinnati on his own. Last night, Mesoraco had a huge game in which he smashed 2 dingers and had 5 runs batted in to go along with it.

We might not see 2 home runs per night, but when he starts, look for Mesoraco to be a big part of the Reds offense ,who can use it.

Cincinnati ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive statistical categories. They’re 28th in runs scored, 24th in batting average, and 26th in on-base percentage. They have possibly the fastest man in baseball in Billy Hamilton, but Hamilton isn’t a legitimate hitter and really can only slap at the ball. His .287 OBP% can attest to that.


A Test For Cueto?
Arizona might not be a good baseball team, but it’s certainly not the fault of their two top hitters in A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

Pollock has been on fire as of late. In his last 3 games, he’s 7 for 12 with 7 runs, 5 doubles, 1 triple and 2 stolen bases. On the season, Pollock is hitting .316.  He’s really come on strong as of late. Pollock is hitting .376 with 3 HR and 10 RBI for the month of May and is also hitting .359 at home this season. A Pollock vs. Cueto matchup makes for an interesting one.

Paul Goldschmidt is the power of the D’Backs organization. On the season, he’s hitting .304 with 10 HR and 38 RBI. Goldschmidt hasn’t had much luck against Cincinnati (.143) but every time that he steps to the plate, he’s a threat to any opposing pitcher. Goldschmidt is a lifetime 2 for 6 with 1 HR and 2 RBI against Johnny Cueto.


Outcome
The Diamondbacks have the much better hitting, but they’re an awful team at home and facing a top-flight pitcher in Johnny Cueto. Great pitching usually wins games. Take Cincinnati at very favorable odds in your MLB picks.

MLB Free Pick: Cincinnati -105 at 5 Dimes
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