MLB Picks: Cash Your Wagers On Cubs vs. Braves Tonight

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, June 11, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 11, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

The Cubs were heavy MLB odds favorites in Atlanta yesterday but the Braves shocked the visitors with a 5-1 win in the opener. Let's look at today's matchup and cash in!

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 31-16, +15.26 units
We had our six game winning streak snapped on Thursday (I took yesterday off) when the Cardinals edged the Reds 3-2 in Cincinnati. I was warned not to include a big underdog in my MLB Picks if I wanted to maintain my winning streak but when you see value in a home pup then why not pounce?[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Small" }[/]

The MLB Odds makers installed the Reds at north of +150 in their own ballpark. Their bats had gotten hot in the prior two games and they had a decent pitcher in Brandon Finnegan going for them. If the Reds win I've got big cajones and my streak stays alive but because they lost I will be accused of a high risk wager that did not respect the preservation of the streak. There's a fine line between genius and jackass my friends. You simply need to await the outcome to determine which side of the line you fall.


Chicago Cubs (41-18, +8.3 units)
When a team boasts the best record in baseball, being tagged as the favorite is not uncommon. However, it is rare indeed that a visiting team finds itself being installed as north of -200 road chalk, even against one of the worst teams in the league. But such was the case yesterday as the Cubs were upset 5-1 by their hosts, the Atlanta Braves. Chicago enters the middle game of this three game series as the 3rd ranked team in runs scored, 13th team batting average, 3rd in on base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage.

The Cubs' ace Jake Arrieta (9-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) takes the mound today and looks to rebound from his first loss of the season when he struck out 12 batters but allowed three runs on nine hits in five innings in the Cubs' 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Arrieta has not faced Atlanta this year but last season allowed zero runs in a combined 13 innings of work in his two starts against the Braves, both wins.


Atlanta Braves (18-42, -15.8 units)
The Bravos and their fans have not had much to cheer about this season as they enter this afternoon's contest with the worst record in the majors and a moribund offense that is in the remote corners of the bottom third in all of the major statistical categories. But every now and again the dark skies give way to a ray of light and that came yesterday in the team's 5-1 shocker over the top team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs. After dropping six straight the  Cubs have won their last two games and look to make it No. 3 today.

Right-hander Matt Wisler (2-6, 4.04 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) will try desperately to exorcise the demons from his last start when the Dodgers blistered the 23-year-old for eight runs (three home runs) and chased him after just four innings en route to a 12-6 victory. When last Wisler faced the Cubs it was another miserable outing as he allowed seven runs on six hits in just 2 plus innings in a 9-3 loss back in August of last year.


Betting Analysis
While I was more than happy to grab the perceived value that the Reds handed me on Thursday as +154 home dogs against the Cardinals, I cannot see my way clear to backing the Braves in this spot. Arrieta has all the motivation in the world to atone for his first loss of the season while the team is equally inspired to get back on track after watching their bats go silent against a pitcher in Bud Norris who had been demoted to the bullpen until getting the call to start after Mike Foltynewicz was placed on the 15-day DL.

Wisler is a young pitcher who seems to get rattled by big lineups and good teams. The Cubs fit that profile in spades and they will roll with Arrieta on the hill who will shutdown the Braves lineup. Here we double dip on the Cubs to get the job done by laying the big lumber as well as the run line.

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MLB Pick: Cubs -275 & Cubs -1½ -155
Best Line Offered:  at GTBets

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