MLB Picks: Cash In Your Ticket On The Rockies vs. Marlins Game

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 17, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 17, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

The Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins each had Thursday off before beginning this four game wraparound weekend set. Let's check The MLB Odds and find a winner here!

I am favoring the Red Hot Rockies in this pitching matchup between Gray and Conley, which is an outstanding example of current form and inverted home/road dichotomy. Miami returns home from a 4-5 Western road trip at Minnesota, Arizona, and San Diego. The Marlins are playing to their 79 win expectations with a record of 34-32, including a 14-16 home record as a result of their less than superior .687 batting OPS on this field. 

The Rockies are much more of a surprise team in 2016. Picked to win just 71 games, after not winning more than 74 games in any of the previous 4 seasons, the Rockies enter this 4 game weekend set with a recent record of 8-2, and on a 4 game winning streak after sweeping the Yankees at Coors in a two game early week set, plating 19 runs in the process.

With a .785 batting OPS for the year, hitting is rarely a problem for the Rockies. One of the biggest reasons for their improvement is a bullpen whose .743 OPS puts it in the midrange of all MLB relief corps; that’s unlike their bottom of the barrel bullpen in previous seasons. 

Today’s starter for Colorado, Gray, is a great example of the dichotomy exhibited by many Colorado pitchers over the years who struggle at high scoring Coors, but pitch far better on the road. Consider that in 30 2/3 innings on the road, Gray has an outstanding .599 road OPS, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .209 BAA.

hat is even more impressive when we note that included in those road numbers have been stops at St Louis, Boston, and San Francisco. Along with other emerging young starters, and an improved bullpen, it is a good reason why the Rockies are 17-17 away. 

Not the same can be said for the Marlins, who are 14-16 at home, and much worse than that when Jose Fernandez does not take the mound. An example would be the starts of Conley when pitching in Marlins’ Park. In 27 1/3 IP from this mound, Conley has allowed 14 runs and 40 base runners for a 1.46 WHIP, and .732 home OPS. 

Besides the inverted home/road dichotomy, please note the current form of these starters, which finds Gray coming off 7 innings of 1 run ball in which he allowed just 5 hits, compared to Conley who lasted just 5 IP of the start against Arizona, in which he allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits. With the above numbers, Tonight's MLB Pick is on the Colorado Rockies with Gray over Conley at +112 on Heritage's MLB Odds.

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Free MLB Pick:  Rockies +112
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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