MLB Picks: Cash In Backing Underdog Royals vs. Astros & Put The Odds In Your Favor

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, April 11, 2016 2:03 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 11, 2016 2:03 PM UTC

The KC Royals travel to Houston for the 1st game of this 4 game early week set. This is a rematch of the Playoff series between these two last October. Check our MLB pick for this game.

KC Royals (Young) at Houston Astros (McHugh) (-130) 8:10 ET
Many will be siding with the Houston Astros in this to get their Playoff revenge. We will stay true to the fundamentals and side with the superior team in the underdog role.


Houston Astros Preview
Are the Astros a one-hit wonder? In the last 3 years, this franchise went from 51 to 70 to 86 wins. Much of that turnaround could be linked to a home field, where the Astros’ win totals at Minute Maid Park increased from 24 to 38 to 53 victories. That latter number tied Toronto for the most home wins in the American League. Tonight, the Astros return for their home opener after a 6-game opening road trip which saw them go 2-4 in 3-game sets vs. NYY and Milwaukee.

There is little question that the Astros will enjoy the comfy confines of Minute Maid, as they were a dichotomous 33-48 on the road last year, but this year’s poor pitching would need to make a dramatic turnaround for the Astros to surpass the lofty 88 victories that is expected of them. Today’s starter, McHugh, was of certainly no help in that regard.

In his opening assignment against NYY, McHugh lasted just 1/3 IP, allowing 6 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. In their recent 1-4 slide, the Astros’ ERA is 7.90 that includes work from their bullpen, which in 23 IP has a 6.65 ERA and has allowed 7 homeruns. 


Kansas City Royals Analysis
Quite dichotomous to that opening week performance is that of a Royals team, who opened by splitting a pair of home games against their World Series rival, the NY Mets. With 2 days’ rest, they remained at home to sweep the winless Minnesota Twins (only team in the American League without a victory) to enter tonight at 4-1.

Unlike Houston, the Royals have been a solid road team during their years of ascent, which have now seen KC go from 72 to 86 to 89 to 95 wins in the last 4 years. Most impressive has been 3 consecutive winning years on the road, including 44-37 last year (second best to only Texas in that category).

Along the way, the Royals have made their mark as the ultimate small ball team playing great fundamental baseball. At the plate, on the bases and in the field, the Royals have authored 50 comeback wins (including the ones on this field in last year’s playoffs) in the last 1+ seasons.

True to form, the Royals’ bullpen is out of the gate with a 2.55 ERA in 17 2/3 IP. Tonight’s starter, Young, worked 5 IP in the opener against the Mets, allowing just 2 runs. In 6 starts against the Astros, Young has a 4-1 record.


Final Overview
Too good to pass up the Royals at this underdog price! I invite you to put the MLB odds boards in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the KC Royals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-170)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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