MLB Picks: Cardinals & DBacks Have Suprising Value 'Over' The Total

Willie Bee

Monday, April 25, 2016 12:37 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 25, 2016 12:37 PM UTC

One of the best pitching matchups on Monday's MLB betting card takes place in Arizona where Zack Greinke and the D-backs take on Jaime Garcia and the Cardinals.

As the first month of the 2016 MLB season slowly fades out of sight, the St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks are doing their best to keep division leaders in their sights. A four game series between the two this week in the desert could help one of them gain on the teams ahead of them and push the other down the ranks.

They'll get things going Monday evening with a 9:40 PM (ET) first pitch at Chase Field, Zack Greinke having the honors of delivering the game's initial toss for the Diamondbacks who are priced -118 at Pinnacle after the MLB odds opened a good 10¢ higher. Jaime Garcia counters for the Cardinals, Pinnacle still offering a 7½ run total and taxed to the low side.

Both clubs enter the series sitting in second place of their respective divisions; St. Louis is 3½ games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates directly behind the Cardinals, while Arizona is deadlocked with the Colorado Rockies out in the NL West, both clubs 2½ back of the Los Angeles Dodgers.


Garcia Unbeaten vs. Diamondbacks
St. Louis is in the middle of its first West Coast swing of the season, wrapping up a series win in San Diego with an 8-5 victory on Sunday. Cardinal hitters heated up in the final two games of that set, scoring 19 runs and collecting 30 hits in the victories. Mike Matheny's lineup is second only to the Cubs in the National League averaging 6.17 RPG and ranks just behind league-leading Arizona in the HR column with 28 round-trippers.

Garcia has been sending a lot of would-be hitters back to the dugout with a K on their scorecards, striking out 26 in his first 20 innings. St. Louis has won two of the three starts, the only loss coming last week in the middle game of a set vs. Chicago. The lefty is a perfect 5-0 in as many career assignments vs. the Diamondbacks, fashioning a fine 2.51 ERA along the way. Three of the wins came on this diamond where Garcia owns a 1.61 ERA in nearly 17 frames.

Arizona has proven to be much better on the road than at home; the D-backs went 7-3 on a recent trip through LA, San Diego and San Fran only to stand 3-7 at Chase. They just dropped a 3-game set vs. the Pirates over the weekend, Sunday's finale extended to 13 innings after the Snakes scored four times in the 8th-9th innings to extend the contest.

Greinke came out of the gate slow with losses in his first two starts vs. the Cubs and Rockies, each of those taking place at home. He looked more like his usual self during the road trip, both Arizona triumphs while the righthander allowed just three runs in 14 combined innings to the Padres and Giants. The 32 year old has fared pretty well against the Redbirds in recent years, his clubs splitting four starts to go with his 2.81 ERA in those outings.


Redbirds Have Won Last 8 From Snakes
St. Louis has ruled this rivalry with a 79-47 record over the years, including a 37-27 mark in Phoenix. The Cardinals swept seven from the Diamondbacks a year ago when the clubs also played four at Chase Field, two of those contests pushing 8 run totals with the other two games halved O/U.

There isn't any rain in the forecast that would keep the roof shut tonight when it should be in the low-70s at game time, but there are some strong WSW winds (out to right) in the works and that might force the game to be played indoors. This game is a tossup for my money, and I'll get behind the lineups with my free MLB pick on the final skipping 'over' the total.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7½ (+100)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Season: 13-8 (+5.40)

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