As the NY Yankees host the Philiadelphia Phillies, this handicapper is focusing on the run-line odds for his best value play of the day.
Philadelphia Phillies (Correia) vs. NY Yankees (Pineda) 7:05 ET
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the NY Yankees in the first game of an early week interleague matchup. It would be stretching the case to believe that the Phillies (9-2) home victory over St. Louis on Sunday was a buy sign for the team. As you will see in the paragraph below, this team has very little to recommend. The Yankees are currently playing at the opposite end of the spectrum. Although they come off a 12-4 home loss vs. Detroit on Sunday, there is plenty of positive momentum on this field for a resounding victory. Based on the scoring averages I will present below, it will be the reason why we can feel comfortable playing this game on the run line at a reduced price.
Little was expected of the Phillies this season, after their miserable 2014 campaign. But, the 24-47 current record is worse than most could have ever imagined. Their -122 run differential for the season is 35 runs worse than the next to last Brewers in that margin category. Unfortunately for Philly fans, there is little reason to consider improvement. Philadelphia enters tonight on negative slides of 5-23 and 2-11. In their previous 12 games, they have been outscored 76-30. They are last in MLB, averaging 3.1 RPG. Those numbers get even worse on the road, where Philly is 7-28 with 5 fewer victories than any other team. For the year, Philly averages just 2.7 RPG on the road. But that is even worse of late. The Phillies have dropped 12 consecutive road games in which they have averaged 1.8 RPG. Journeyman, Correia, is not the answer. The Phillies have lost both of his starts this season, in which he has posted a modest 1.32 WHIP.
Trailing Tampa Bay by a single game for the division lead, NYY will have plenty of motivation following the embarrassing 12-4 loss to Detroit on this field yesterday. Despite that defeat, the Yankees remain on a 16-9 surge, which includes 11-2 on this field. In those 13 games, the New Yorkers have averaged 6.9 RPG. Anyone who watched tonight’s NY starter, Pineda, mow down Miami in his most recent outing will be eager to bet this game with confidence. The Yankees have won 9 of 13 Pineda starts in which he has gone 8-3. The strength of his season has been from this mound, where in 5 starts, Pineda has a 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. We know from this month’s research on the WHIP, that any starter with a home WHIP of 1.10 or less is an outstanding play on his home mound. In addition, the slants of Pineda are tough to discern for those who are not familiar with him. Witness his record in interleague action, which shows that in 7 starts, Pineda is 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA.
Expect a slaughter tonight at Yankee Stadium. Fortunately for us, we may not have to watch more than a couple innings before this game is no longer in doubt.
MLB Picks: Take NY Yankees -1.5 at 5Dimes