MLB Picks: Bumgarner & Giants +125 In Good Spot To End Mets Winning Streak

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, May 1, 2016 12:21 PM GMT

The Giants have dropped the first two of a 3-game set against the NY Mets, winners of their last eight. Let's keep our own streak alive as we look to make it nine straight in our MLB picks.

2016 MLB Record (15-7, +7.87 units)

 

San Francisco Giants (12-13, -2.9 units)
Despite being a game under .500 the Giants reside atop what is currently the weakest division in baseball, the NL West. San Francisco will try to salvage the final game of a three game series with the white hot Mets and will most assuredly get better results from their ace going this afternoon than they did from the struggling Matt Cain. The three-time All-Star has failed to notch a win in 12 consecutive starts and now has an ERA of 7.00 after yesterday's 6-5 defeat. The Giants' offense has ameliorated much of their pitching woes this season. San Francisco ranks in the bottom third for team ERA yet their offense is in the top 10 in runs (6th), batting average (7th), on base percentage (4th) and slugging percentage (10th).

Madison Bumgarner takes the hill this afternoon for the Giants and if anyone can stop a skid, it's their 26-year-old ace. Bumgarner did just that in his last outing when he held the Padres to six hits on two runs and a season-high nine K's in six plus innings of work. His efforts resulted in a 5-4 victory over the Padres and a stop to the team's three-game losing streak. The three-time World Champion is 3-0 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.793.

 

New York Mets (15-7, +4.6 units)
The Mets are smoking and 23-year-old left fielder Michael Conforto is sizzling who yesterday tied Joe Christopher's 1964 team record with a double in his sixth consecutive game. Conforto saw limited action in his rookie season and this year was originally slated as a platoon outfielder. However, he has been punishing opposing pitchers and now carries a .365 average with four home runs and 18 RBI. In addition, 30-year-old Neil Walker has demonstrated a surprising power surge with nine dingers thus far, which bodes well for him breaking his personal home run mark of 23 in a season.

Twenty-three-year-old Noah Syndergaard is building on a fine rookie campaign with an even better sophomore season. The 6'6" right-hander boasts a 2-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last outing the MLB odds makers installed him as a -210 home favorite over the Reds but he was not quite as sharp as he had been in prior performances. He surrendered three earned runs on seven hits in six plus innings of work but those who backed him in their MLB picks still got paid as the Mets defeated Cincinnati 5-3, though Syndergaard did not factor in the decision.

Betting Analysis
This is not an easy choice because we have two rock stars on the mound and a pair of offenses that are amongst the best. Of course the natural inclination is to lean towards the Mets because they have won eight straight and have the home field advantage. In addition, one could also make the case that Bumgarner has been a bust on the road this season as he totes a 6.30 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP on the highway. But they say if you torture the numbers long enough they will confess to almost anything. And such is the case here as Bumgarner has a grand total of two starts on the road in 2016 and registered a win in one of them. That was the season opener against Milwaukee, when he allowed three runs in five innings of work in what was a 12-3 victory for the Giants. His lone abomination of the season occurred in Los Angeles when the Dodgers tagged him for seven runs (four earned) in their 7-3 defeat to Clayton Kershaw and Big Blue.

The long and short of it is this. I know Bumgarner is a beast on the bump. And in particular his history shows he chews up and spits out the Mets for breakfast. He is 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA with a WHIP of 0.793 when playing the Metropolitans in his career. On the other hand, Noah Syndergaard is young with limitless potential. But his last outing was not terrific and today he opposes one of the top offenses in the majors. While the squares will recall with great clarity the 13-1 trouncing the Giants took on Friday night followed by their 6-5 loss yesterday, I say it's a brand new day and one that favors the visiting Giants particularly when one considers the that their ace on the hill is getting a +125 return.

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Free MLB Pick: Giants +125
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle